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AFL Round 17: Trend Analysis and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

Official Plays:

2u Hawthorn +23.5 @ $1.92

1u Hawthorn win @ $3.42

3u Collingwood win (24 point special) @ $2.05

3u GWS/SYD either team by under 19.5 @ $2.10

0.5u Adelaide 1-39 / under 183.5 @ 3.75

1u Carl/WB Either Team By Under 19.5 @ $2.10

2u WCE 1-39 @ $2.10

 

 

Geelong v Hawthorn – MCG

Cats are 10-4-1 SU, 8-7 ATS, 8-7 Over

Hawks are 6-8-1 SU, 6-9 ATS, 4-11 Over

Cats are 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS v the Hawks under Chris Scott

      9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS in the H&A season

Cats are 9-11 SU, 5-15 ATS in their last 20 matches at the MCG

      Under is 15-5

      Cats are 1-2 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2017

Hawks are 3-5 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2017

      Under is 5-3

If you placed $1 on Hawthorn’s head to head and line for the last 6 weeks, you would have $12.18 profit (#1 in the league).

Cats are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS coming back to Victoria the week after playing interstate in 2017

 

Prediction:

This game is leading up to be a cracker of a contest, probably something that wouldn’t have been said if it was being played a month ago. In the last three weeks, both teams have won a couple of games, and have drawn against GWS. The gambling form guide suggests that Hawthorn have been the most profitable team in the last 6 weeks, greatly thanks to wins as underdogs against Adelaide and Collingwood. Geelong are in decent knick themselves, but I can’t help but think a rejuvenated Hawthorn are value in this match, especially as it is Hodge’s 300th. The ex-captain has also announced his retirement in what has been a pretty emotional week for him and the club, and I expect the Hawks to lift here. Hawks by 8 points.

Recommended Bet: Hawthorn 23.5 @ $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

Hawthorn Win @ $3.42 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne – Adelaide Oval

Port are 9-6 SU & ATS, 6-9 Over

North are 4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS, 9-6 Over

Port are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS against North Melbourne under Ken Hinkley

      Have never played at Adelaide Oval

      Under is 3-1

Port are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS at Adelaide Oval in 2017

      4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS v interstate sides

      Under is 6-2

Port are 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS as favourites in 2017

North are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 away interstate trips

      Over is 4-2

The average total points scored in afternoon matches at Adelaide Oval in the last 2 seasons is 196.1

Prediction:

Port Adelaide come into this one as red-hot favourites and rightfully so. The Power are sitting 4th on the ladder and are coming off a big win against the Eagles on the road. They’re up against North who have fallen to 17th, after they lost their fifth straight to the Dockers last week. Port are the shortest odds of the round and should probably get the job done here, but as we’ve seen many times this season, there are no sure things. Assuming the rain stays away, I expect Port to score with ease. Port by 52

 

Recommended Bet: Total Points: Over 188.5 @ $1.90

 

 

 

Gold Coast v Collingwood – Metricon Stadium

Suns are 6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS, 8-7 Over

Pies are 5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS, 8-7 Over

Suns are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS against the Pies

      2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS at Metricon

Suns are 4-3 SU & ATS at Metricon in 2017

Suns are 6-2 SU & ATS in their last 8 non-night matches at Metricon

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 non-night matches at Metricon

Pies are 4-2 SU, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 interstate matches

      12-2 ATS in their last 14 interstate matches

Prediction:

Two of the biggest letdowns of 2017 face off on Saturday twilight footy at Metricon Stadium, and even though it’s nearly impossible for either of these teams to make finals, both teams will/should be hungry to try to save their coach’s job as pressure continues to build. Despite having lost twice the amount games as they have won in 2017, it took 15 matches for Collingwood to display their first non-competitive game of the year, losing to the Bombers by 37 points last week. A match that coach Buckley described as a “tipping point”. The Suns’ coach is also being described as a “dead man walking”, as his players probably produced the worst back-to-back quarters from any side in 2017 last week, only managing to score 4 points in the middle two quarters in the 67 point loss to Sydney. The Pies have been a good travelling side over the last few years, an interstate trip might be exactly what the Pies need to galvanise the group. Pies by 10.

 

Recommended Bet: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.60

 

 

GWS Giants v Sydney – Spotless Stadium

Giants are 10-3-2 SU, 6-9 ATS, 7-8 Over

Swans are 8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS, 5-10 Over

GWS are 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS v Sydney since 2014

      3-0 SU & ATS in the last 3 matches

      2-1 SU & ATS at Spotless

GWS are 17-5 SU, 12-10 ATS in their last 22 matches at Spotless Stadium

      5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS in 2017

Swans are 4-3 SU & ATS away from the SCG in 2017

9 of the last 10 GWS matches have been decided by under 24 points

Prediction:

The match of the round is probably the biggest home & away “Battle of the Bridge” that we have seen to date. The second-placed GWS Giants host their cross-town rival in Sydney, who are clearly the inform team of the competition – winning their last 8 of 9 games – and sit inside the top 8 for the first time in 2017. There are huge implications connected to his game as a loss could force GWS out of the top 2, a position they’ve been in since round 6, and a loss to Sydney will mean they will most likely drop out of the 8 after only being in it for a week. A lot of GWS matches have gone down to the fire this year, and I’m expecting nothing different this weekend, But I think Sydney will just get over the line. Swans by 9

 

Recommended Bet: Either Team by under 19.5 @ $ 2.10

 

 

 

Melbourne v Adelaide – TIO Stadium

Dees are 9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS, 8-7 Over

Crows are 11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS 6-9 Over

Dees are 2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 matches against the Crows

      Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 matches at TIO stadium

Dees are 3-4 SU & ATS at TIO Stadium

Dees are 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 interstate matches.

      Under is 5-2 in the last 7

Crows are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS away from Adelaide Oval in 2017

Prediction:

The last time these two teams met, the Dees had their most impressive win in the post-Neeld era, and they’ll be looking to repeat the dose under similar circumstances. The Dees won by 7 goals without the likes of Jesse Hogan and Max Gawn, this time it’s their co-captains Nathan Jones and Jack Viney that are out. The Crows are sitting pretty on top of the ladder, but they know that a slip up could mean they’d fall out of the top 2, a position they’ve been in all year long. I think the Crows will come out as victors against the Dees up north, especially as the Dees have a long injury list. The Crows will be mindful that the Dees have matched up well against them in recent years, but I do expect them to prevail.  Crows by 13

 

Recommended Bet: Adelaide 1-39 / under 183.5 @ $3.75

 

 

Richmond v Brisbane – Etihad Stadium

 

Tigers are 9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS, 3-12 Over

Lions are 3-12 SU, 8-7 ATS, 9-6 Over

Tigers are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS vs the Lions under Damien Hardwick

Tigers are 7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2013

Interstate sides are 7-7 SU, 11-3 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017

  • Lions are 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS

The Lions are 2-6 SU, 7-1 ATS (the best in the league) away from home in 2017

Prediction:

Yet another team who had been touted as a premiership contender looked anything but, and last week it was Richmond that got smashed by the Saints by 67 points – a score line that actually flattered the Tigers. Damien Hardwick’s troops will be looking to prove that a performance like that was a one-off, and they have the perfect opportunity to do so against the last-placed Lions. This game is Richmond’s annual home game at Etihad Stadium, a venue that their opponents have displayed a good brand of footy, utilising the fast deck. The Lions are also the best away team in the league, covering 7 of 8 lines away from the Gabba in 2017, and they’ll be looking for their first win as a club against Damien Hardwick’s Richmond. It won’t be easy, but the Tigers will correct last week’s mishap and get the 4 points. Tigers by 27 points.

Recommended Bet: Richmond 1-39 @ $2.50


 

Carlton v Western Bulldogs – MCG

 

Blues are 5-10 SU, 10-5 ATS, 6-9 Over

Bulldogs are 7-8 SU, 4-11 ATS, 5-10 Over

Blues are 1-3 SU. 3-1 ATS v the Bulldogs since 2013

Blues are 10-7-1 SU, 21-7 ATS in their last 27 matches at the MCG

  • 3-5 SU, 6-2 ATS in 2017

Under Luke Beveridge, the Bulldogs are 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS the week after playing interstate in the H&A season

  • The last 10 of 11 such games have gone “Under”

Bulldogs are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in their last 9 matches at the MCG

Prediction:

If the Bulldogs’ season wasn’t already on the line before getting smashed by the Crows last week, it definitely is this week against the Blues at the home of footy. The G has been a happy hunting ground in the last couple of seasons for both teams, on different levels. Their season is far from being over, but a loss here could mean that the reigning premiers could be 2 wins (and a huge percentage difference) from 8th place. Standing in their way is the lowly, but impressive young outfit in Carlton. The Blues are only ranked 16th on the ladder, but are capable of playing footy that often keeps their opponents honest, something we saw in narrow losses against the Crows and the Demons in the last couple of weeks. The Blues will reveal to the world just how much the Dogs want to salvage their season one way or another, and even though I believe the Dogs will win, it won’t be with any ease. Dogs by 3

Recommended Bet: Either Team by Under 19.5 @ $2.10

 

 

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