Welcome to The Trend Bettor’s Round 1 2018 preview!
It’s been a long 6 months, but footy is back! After an exciting and successful 2017 from a betting perspective, I’m excited to be sharing my trends and statistics for the upcoming season once again with OddyOddyOddy!
I’ve spent a large chunk of the summer adding to my AFL database that dates back to 2010, so hopefully by researching and adding more variables, we can all benefit by winning more bets, and ultimately more profits.
As we found last year, round 1 is always a mystery and it takes a while to get rolling, but this time I feel like we will be more prepared for the early part of the season as we attack the seemingly unexpected and unknown.
I’m excited for another whole season of sharing what I have researched, and constantly interacting with the people who follow and appreciate the content that I produce. With that being said, feel free to give me a hello on Twitter at @TheTrendBettor as I’m always up for a sporting or betting conversation.
Alright, no more talking! Here are some key round 1 trends that I have found over the summer:
Favourites have won 41 and lost 28 and drawn once (41-28-1 SU) in round 1 since 2010.
SU = Straight Up
Favourites have covered the line 26 times, and have failed to cover the line 44 times (26-44 ATS) in round 1 since 2010.
ATS = Against the Spread
Non-Victorian teams playing at home against a travelling opponent are 18-7 SU, 16-9 ATS in round 1 since 2010. This applies to Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, and West Coast.
8-4 SU, 10-2 ATS when underdogs (West Coast)
Victorian teams playing at home against interstate sides are 9-7-1 SU, 8-9 ATS in round 1 since 2010. This applies to Essendon and St Kilda.
“Over” total points scored is 41-21 in round 1 since 2011.
Richmond $1.20 v Carlton $5.25 – MCG
Line -29.5, Total 179.5
“Over” is 6-0 in the last 6 round 1 matches between these two teams, averaging 195 total points scored
“Over” is 11-3 in the last 14 matches between the two teams
Richmond are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS against the Blues since 2014
Carlton are 0-15 SU, 4-11 ATS in night matches at the MCG since 2013
Recommended Bet:0.5u Over 179.5 Total Points @ $1.91 (William Hill/Centrebet)