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AFL: Round 6 Trends and Bets
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

Geelong $1.48 v Sydney $2.90 – GMHBA Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -15.5, Total 165.5

Geelong are 3-2 SU & ATS, 2-3 Over in 2018

Sydney are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 5-2 SU & ATS against Geelong since 2014

    • 2-1 SU & ATS @ GMHBA

  • “Under” is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams

  • “Under” is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between the two teams at GMHBA

  • “Under” is 6-1 in the last 7 matches at GMHBA

  • Geelong are 14-2 SU, 11-5 ATS at GMHBA since 2016. Only team to beat them? Sydney… twice

Comment: As we all know, Geelong are a different team when they play down the highway, but if there is one team to beat them, it’s been the Sydney Swans. I’m tossing up between Sydney +15.5 or Under 165.5 total points. With Hannebery and Lance Franklin out, I am slightly deterred from putting money on Sydney, and when you take Daniel Menzel out of the game, I think that’s all the convincing I need to go with the “Under”.

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Under 165.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Bet365/Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne $2.35 v Port Adelaide $1.62 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line +9.5, Total 179.5

North are 3-2 SU & ATS, 1-4 Over in 2018

Port are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Port are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 matches against North

    • 2-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • “Under” is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two sides

    • 2-1 at Etihad Stadium

  • Port are 6-8 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium under Ken Hinkley

  • North are 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 matches at Etihad Stadium against interstate sides

  • “Over” is 6-3 in the last 9 North Melbourne matches against interstate side at Etihad Stadium

 

Comments:

Hard to find a clear trend to take advantage of in this one. North are playing well beyond pre-season expectations so far this season, and Port have been quite disappointing. If you’re betting on form then North Melbourne is definitely value, but I’m not going to get sucked into a bet here as I believe Port Adelaide are the better side.

Ben Cunnington has gotten over 27.5 disposals in 6 of his last 8 matches at Etihad Stadium, and with Shaun Higgins unavailable due to concussion, expect Cunnington to be North’s biggest ball winner here. Cunnington also had 33 disposals the last time against Port Adelaide, which was also at Etihad Stadium.

Recommended Bet: 1u Ben Cunnington o24.5 disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

GWS Giants $1.13 v Brisbane Lions $7 – Spotless Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line -37.5, Total 159.5, Chance of Rain

GWS are 3-1-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings against Brisbane

    • Average winning margin = 53.5

  • GWS are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home matches

  • Brisbane are 0-6 SU, 3-3 ATS in their last 6 interstate matches

  • GWS are 6-1-1 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 matches at Spotless Stadium

Comment: I really want to load up on GWS -37.5 in this one, but the weather forecast has made me a little hesitant. A couple of reason’s why I want to back GWS are: 1) they’re more than a 6 goal better side against the Lions, 2) they’re coming off a very disappointing draw, and 3) the last time Brisbane played in the rain, they lost to Richmond by 93 points. There is some uncertainty around the weather in this game, so I will just play a smaller stake… for now.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: 1u GWS -37.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn $1.42 v St Kilda $3.20 – Launceston

Saturday Night, Line -16.5, Total 173.5

Hawks are 3-2 SU & ATS, 2-3 Over in 2018

Saints are 1-3-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 0-5 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS in their last 3 matches against St Kilda

    • 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS in Launceston

  • Hawthorn are 6-1-1 SU, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 matches in Launceston

  • St Kilda are 4-14 SU, 7-11 ATS interstate under Alan Richardson

  • Hawthorn have outscored their opponents 251-173 (145%) in 2nd halves in 2018

  • St Kilda have been outscored 175-273 (64%) in 2nd halves in 2018

Comments: We all saw a different St Kilda last week against the GWS, but I’m going to need more than one draw to convince me that the Saints are the side everyone thought they would be, but with that being said, I’m not willing to write them off in this one, so I’m staying away from choosing a winner in this game. Hawthorn have a terrific second half record whereas the Saints have a deplorable second half record. I believe that no matter who wins this game, this trend will continue. If Hawthorn are winning at half time, they could get a run on and smash the Saints in the second half, where as if the Saints jump the Hawks, expect Al Clarkson’s men to respond, just like how they did against North last week.

Recommended Bet: 2u Hawthorn -8.5 (2nd Half) @ $1.89 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Adelaide $1.10 v Gold Coast $9 – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Night, Line -46.5, Total 182.5

Crows are 3-2 SU & ATS, 2-3 Over in 2018

Suns are 3-2 SU & ATS, 1-4 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 10-0 SU & ATS all-time against Gold Coast

    • 4-0 SU & ATS in Adelaide

  • Suns are 3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS in their last 13 interstate matches

  • Under Don Pyke, when Adelaide win as 40+ point favourites at home, their average winning margin is 81.

  • Adelaide are 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS as 40+ point favourites at home under Don Pyke

Comment: I think the Suns have surprised the footy public as not too many people would’ve predicted that they would win 3 of their first 5 matches, but I think they will be quickly brought down to the harsh reality that they can’t compete with top sides. Gold Coast have never beaten Adelaide, in fact, they have never even covered a line against Adelaide. I expect that run to continue as I find it hard to see Gold Coast scoring enough goals to even be competitive.

Recommended Bet: 1u Adelaide -46.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Essendon $2.05 v Melbourne $1.90 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +1.5, Total 185.5

Essendon are 2-3 SU & ATS & Over in 2018

Melbourne are 2-3 SU & ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Essendon are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 meetings against Melbourne

    • Under is 4-0

    • 0-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Essendon are 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2017

  • Melbourne are 3-1 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches at Etihad Stadium

Comments: Completely staying away from this one as both teams were embarrassingly poor in their Anzac matches.

Unofficial Bets: Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals / Joe Daniher 3+ Goals @ $3.60 (Sportsbet Same Game Multi)

 

 

 

 

 

Collingwood $2.80 v Richmond $1.49 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line +13.5, Total 170.5

Collingwood are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 Over in 2018

Richmond are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 4-1 SU & ATS against Collingwood since 2015

  • Richmond are 15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS in their last 17 matches at the MCG

  • Collingwood are 6-11-1 SU, 10-8 ATS in their last 18 matches at the MCG

  • Collingwood are 3-7-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at the MCG as underdogs

  • Collingwood are 7-12-1 SU, 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs

  • Collingwood haven’t lost by over 40 since Round 18, 2016

Comments:  Collingwood are one of, if not the hottest team in footy right now, but Richmond at the MCG is just about the toughest task anyone could ask for at the moment, even if Collingwood do share the home ground advantage. The premiers do not seem to have a premiership hangover and look just as good as they did in 2018. I was really tossing up between whether to go Richmond -13.5 or 1-39 for a good which, and I couldn’t confidently choose one over the other, so I’m playing it a little bit safer here.

Recommended Bet: 2u Richmond win @ $1.49 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

West Coast Eagles $1.71 v Fremantle $2.30 – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +7.5, Total 171.5

Dockers are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 1-4 Over in 2018

Eagles are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 5-0 SU & ATS in their last 5 Derbies

  • West Coast are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 6 matches in Perth

  • Fremantle are 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS in their last 9 matches in Perth

Comments: Both of these teams have been surprise packets in 2018 as most people wrote these teams off in terms of finishing in the top 8, but with both teams with more wins than losses, this makes up for one juicy Derby! West Coast have had the edge over the Dockers in the last few derbies, and I expect that to continue.

Recommended Bet: 1u Eagles -6.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

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