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by @ betdetective

 

Ladder topping Perth Glory thrashed the hapless Mariners last week while Melbourne Victory will look on their draw at home to Wellington as two points dropped. At the other end of the table Brisbane scraped a draw in Newcastle to avoid their sixth straight defeat. 

 

John Aloisi stepped down as Brisbane coach a week ago so we may see a slight upturn in their form… in the short-term. 

 

I’ve been looking at the xG (expected goals) tables today and here are the things that stood out:

 

 

 

  • Melbourne City have averaged 1.5 goals at home but the xG is just 0.8 so they are over performing in front of goal

  • Melbourne Victory average 2.33 goals at home compared to an xG of 1.69 so the same applies

  • Western Sydney are averaging 1.25 goals at home with an xG of 1.84 so they may improve in the coming weeks

  • Newcastle have averaged 1 goal per game at home with an xG of 1.71 so they also may improve in attack

  • Melbourne Victory have averaged 2 goals per game away with an xG of 1.18 so a regression to the mean may be on its way

 

 

 

All of the above points should be taken with something of a pinch of salt due to the small sample size, but they are still worth noting.

 

We are having three bets this weekend:

 

 

Wellington to beat Adelaide at $4.4 with Betfair ($4.2 with bet365 if you can get set there)

Wellington have improved and have an identical record to their opponents Adelaide. Played 10, won 4, drew 3, lost 3. Scored 14, conceded 13. Wellington are better at home while Adelaide have excelled away. Our odds are $3.2 for Wellington here so at $4+ this looks a decent play. 

 

 

The next bet is on Western Sydney to beat Melbourne Victory at home at $3.50 with Sportsbet

As noted above, Western Sydney have under performed compared to their xG at home while Melbourne Victory have done the opposite away. Lets hope we see regressions to the mean on both sides. The $3.50 with Sportsbet may not last as they are a standout top price. 

 

 

Our final bet for the round is a tentative one on Brisbane to beat Perth. Brisbane should improve in the short term and Perth surely cant keep up their average of 2.4 goals per game on the road (xG of 1.88). 

Brisbane to beat Perth at $3.1 with TAB/UBET

 

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