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AFL: 1st Semi Final: Hawthorn vs Adelaide
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By @OddyAFL

 

Adelaide travel to Melbourne for the 3rd week running to take on the Hawks at the MCG on Friday night.

 

In their defeat to West Coast last week Hawthorn looked a shadow of the team that dominated the competition in the middle part of the season, domination which saw some ridiculous statements regarding their flag winning chances. One bookie even paid out on the Hawks with weeks of the home and away season to play.

 

Pundits and punters alike are now doubting the Hawks and it’s this sort of over reaction to one lacklustre performance that we should be taking advantage of.

 

It is true that, Sam Mitchell aside, the Hawks did not play to their best in Perth but the Eagles are a formidable opposition on their own ground and Alistair Clarkson will have spent all week readying his battle hardened troops for another chance this week, at their favoured venue, the MCG.

 

Adelaide did well to beat the Bulldogs in what was a fantastic match to watch last week after a slow start which saw the Bulldogs kick the first 4 goals of the game. But, taking on the Bulldogs at the MCG cannot be compared to facing the Eagles in Perth.

 

Looking at recent meetings  between Hawthorn and the Crows, Hawthorn have come out on top in all of the last five matches, twice at Adelaide Oval, once at AAMI Stadium and twice at the MCG.

 

Hawthorn under Clarkson also have a superb record coming off a defeat.

 

Interestingly, despite losing both of the two most recent matches (at Adelaide Oval) Crows players have dominated the possession count with three Crows, Scott Thompson 32, Patrick Dangerfield 31 and Rory Sloane 29 well clear of the best Hawks players at 25 disposals in last season’s 114 to 85 loss.

 

The year before when losing 104-92 Dangerfield had 41, Crouch 40, Brodie Smith 34 and Sloane 33 while Sam Mitchell topped the Hawks’ list with 25.

 

When the additional markets are up for this match it might be worth looking for some value opposing Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis in the most disposals markets. I’ll update this post if i see anything that looks like good value.

 

 

 

The total points line looks about right at 188.5 and while i’d lean to the overs I don’t think it’s worth a bet at this point.

 

1 unit Hawks -21.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2015-08-27 09.47.09

 

 

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