The Adelaide Crows welcome North Melbourne to the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night in what is forecast to be a bit of a wet one and this weather forecast plays a part in the bet we are recommending.
Adelaide are formidable at home, winning 9 of their last 10, 13 of 17 since the start of 2015 and they usually do it in some style. They are 12/5 at the spread in that time.
North got beaten last week by the Hawks at Etihad but lost little in defeat as they pushed the champions every step of the way with a somewhat depleted line up. Two players who were out last week, Swallow and Cunnington, are due back in their midfield to face the Crows but they will be without Luke McDonald and Daniel Wells, both of whom have been very good in 2016.
The line has moved from Crows -18.5 to -26.5 and i have to admit to being tempted to get with North at the plus, especially with a low scoring affair likely in the rain. However, Adelaide should have enough to win in their own back yard so the market I like is the 39 point margin market where we can back the Crows to win by 1-39 points.
1 unit Adelaide Crows to win by 1-39 at $2.18 with
are also offering $1.80 for $25 that the Crows with by 10 points or more. If you can, you should take that too.