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AFL: Adelaide v Hawthorn Betting Preview and Tips
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By Tom Sermani 

The Adelaide Crows meet the Hawthorn Hawks on Friday night at the Adelaide Oval in what should be a cracking contest.

The Hawks are coming off a loss to North Melbourne while the Crows followed up their impressive win over Port Adelaide in round 15 with a 68 point win over GWS at Spotless Stadium.


Adelaide (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 8/7

ATS: 7/8 (35/27)

At Night S/U: 2/2

At Night ATS: 2/2 (7/8)

Adelaide Oval S/U: 5/3

Adelaide Oval ATS: 5/3

6 day break S/U: 3/2

6 day break ATS: 3/2 (12/6)



O/U: 8/7 (33/29)

Adelaide Oval: 4/4

6 day break: 3/2 (10/8)

At Night: 3/1 (7/8)



Average scored: 93.9

Average conceded: 85.3

Average Total: 179.2

Average Points Line: 182.6

Average Scored at Adelaide Oval: 92.6

Average Conceded at Adelaide Oval: 85.5

Average Total at Adelaide Oval: 178.1

Average Points Line at Adelaide Oval: 182.1

1st Q: 6/9

1st H: 6/9


Notable Trends:

The Crows have a strong record at the spread off a 6 day break or less since the start of 2012, covering 12 times from 18 games. 


Hawthorn (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 11/4

ATS: 8/7 (34/31)

At Night S/U: 3/3

At Night ATS: 1/5 (11/13)

Interstate S/U: 1/2

Interstate ATS: 1/2 (9/9)

7+ day break S/U: 7/2

7+ day break ATS: 6/3 (23/21)



O/U: 11/4 (40/25)

Interstate: 2/1 (10/8)

7+ day break: 6/3 (27/17)

At Night: 4/2 (16/8)



Average scored: 114.8

Average conceded: 80.7

Average Total: 195.7

Average Points Line: 186.3

1st Q: 7/8

1st H: 11/4


Notable Trends:

Hawthorn have strong trends towards the overs including off a 7+ day break and at night and are only 1/5 at the spread in night games in 2014. They have only won 2 of their past 8 opening quarters. 



Verdict and bets:

The trends point to the Crows covering the line of +5.5 points and the total going over. Rain is forecast all afternoon and evening in Adelaide tomorrow, however, so the play could be (if you have an account and can get set with Stan James in the UK) to back under 184.5 points at $1.83 with a view of backing the overs at 165-170 points when the rain arrives. 

I’m also going to leave Adelaide at the line and instead go for the Crows to win the opening quarter at $2.05 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15


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