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AFL: Brisbane v Gold Coast - Betting Preview and Tips
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani

 

A Johnathan Brown-less Brisbane Lions take on a Gary Ablett-less Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba on Saturday afternoon. 

The last meeting between the two Queensland sides resulted in a convincing 114-61 victory for the Suns in round 3 of this year. 

 

Brisbane (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 4/12 (24/36)

ATS: 7/9 (30/30)

Twilight S/U: 1/4

Twilight ATS: 2/3 (6/7)

Gabba S/U: 2/6

Gabba ATS: 4/4 (17/15)

7 day + break S/U: 4/9 

7 day + break ATS: 7/6 (26/22)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 6/10 (30/30)

Gabba: 2/6

7 day + break: 6/7 (25/24)

Twilight: 2/3 (6/7)

 

Points

Average scored: 64.6

Average conceded: 102

Average Total: 166.6

Average Points Line: 174.5

Average Scored at Gabba: 68

Average Conceded at Gabba: 93.1

Average Total at Gabba: 161.1

Average Points Line at Gabba: 173.9

 

Q1 S/U : 3/13

1H S/U: 5/11

Gabba 1Q: 2/6

Gabba 1H: 5/11

 

Notable Trends:

The Lions are 6/10 in favour of the unders and 2/6 at the Gabba. 

 

 

 

 

Gold Coast (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 7/9 (18/42)

ATS: 9/7 (31/29)

Twilight S/U: 5/3

Twilight ATS: 5/3 (14/8)

7 day + break S/U: 8/6

7 day + break ATS: 7/7 (23/28)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/7 (30/30)

7 day + break: 7/7 (25/26)

Twilight: 4/4 (10/12)

 

Points

Average scored: 90.7

Average conceded: 91.2

Average Total: 181.9

Average Points Line: 177.5

 

Q1 S/U : 7/9

1H S/U: 8/8

 

Notable Trends:

The Suns are 14/8 at the line in twilight matches since 2012. 

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

Not too many strong trends to go on and both teams are without their most celebrated players with Brown retired and Ablett out for the season making this a tough game to call. 

I lean towards Brisbane straight up at $2.80 but at this point i’d rather wait and hope for a drift in odds out to $3.0+. If they do drift to that price i’ll put up an update on here (Sportsbet’s money back if your team loses by 20 points or less is a good offer) UPDATE: I don’t think the Lions will get bigger than $2.80 so have added a bet at those odds below. 

The Lions are 2/6 to the under at the Gabba and while under 177.5 is tempting I like the 1st half under more. The Lions average 1st half total at the Gabba is 77.4 and I can see this match being quite cagey to start with.

 

Tip:

1 unit on under 87.5 1st half points at $1.88 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

 

Tip:

1 unit on Brisbane to win match at $2.80 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13 (money back if lose by less than 20 points)

 

Tip:

The Rain looks like it will hit the Gabba at about half time so a unit on under 88.5 2nd half points with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05 at $1.88 is in order. 

 

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