The Lions have lost their last four matches by an average of 45 points with the most recent loss against the Bulldogs by 72, and it could have been more.
Adelaide have only won two of their last five with defeats to GWS, Freo and Hawthorn alongside wins against St Kilda and Carlton.
The Lions have covered the spread three times in their eleven matches in 2015 and Adelaide five times.
Adelaide’s record ATS when interstate was very good in 2012 and 2013 but slightly worse than average since the start of last year while the Lions are 1/5 ATS at the Gabba in 2015 but 4/0 in twilight matches at the same venue since 2014.
That’s all very confusing and the over/under numbers don’t help much either with Brisbane leaning to the under and the Crows to the over.
All stats aside, however, I think Adelaide win this by four goals or more in what is a must win game for them.