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AFL - Carlton v Collingwood
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The Blues and Pies come into this match as two sides hitting good form, the Blues turning around a 0 and 4 start to beat the Bulldogs and and Eagles in their last 2 matches while the Pies have taken care of the Tigers, Kangaroos and Bombers most recently. 

 

Collingwood have won 7 of the last 10 meetings between the teams. 

 

Both teams need to improve their accuracy in front of goal with the Pies ranked 17th and Blues 13th. The Pies have averaged a league ‘leading’ 13.8 behinds in 2014 with Carlton 7th averaging 12.1. 

 

The Blues will look to dominate hit-outs and clearances with the Pies struggling in both departments, ranking 18th and 16th compared to Carlton’s 6th and 4th. 

 

Collingwood’s record against the spread since the start of 2012 sits at 23/31, when favourite 14/21, when homestate favourite 11/18 and at the MCG 13/20. 

 

Carlton are 25/27 overall, 12/11 as underdog, 9/9 when home state underdog and 9/11 at the MCG. 

 

Rain is forecast (70% chance according to my weather APP) tonight in Melbourne and if it arrives this could turn into a low scoring affair. The total points spread has moved from 170.5 to 165.5 and I thunk there’s still a little value to be had at that number.

 

 

There have been 26 matches at the MCG this season with an average of 166.15 points scored with 20 of those matches played in dry conditions. 

Collingwood are 1 and 5 on the over/under this season and 17 and 37 since the start of 2012 while Carlton are 4 and 9 off a 6 day break in the same time period. 

 

 

Under 165.5 points is $1.91 with BET365.COM.AU

 

If both teams show their most recent form tonight this should be a close match and the way to go here is either team to win by under 25.5 points in the Tri Bet market at $2.05 with SPORTINGBET.COM.AU or CENTREBET.COM.AU

 

 

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