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AFL: Carlton v Geelong - Stats, Trends & Tips
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By Tom Sermani  @tom_sermani

 

Round 21 kicks off with Carlton hosting Geelong at Etihad Stadium and we should see another competitive game. The last time the two teams met was as recently as Round 12 when the Cats ran out narrow 107-102 winners. 

 

Carlton (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 7/12 (30/45)

ATS: 11/8 (34/31)

Night: 2/9

Night ATS: 6/5 (18/20)

Etihad S/U: 6/2

Etihad ATS: 7/1 (15/11)

6 day or less break: 1/5

6 day or less break ATS: 3/3 (9/9)

Underdog: 4/8

Underdog ATS: 8/4 (18/13)

Q1 S/U: 9/9/1

1H S/U: 8/11

 

Over/Under

O/U: 10/9 (33/32)

Etihad: 5/3 (15/11)

6 day or less break: 3/3 (7/11)

Night: 7/4 (20/18)

1Q: 12/7

1H: 13/6

 

Points

Average scored: 88.8

Average conceded: 94.5

Average Total: 183.3

Average Points Line: 182.1

Average Scored at Etihad: 107.3

Average Conceded at Etihad: 85.8

Average Total at Etihad: 193 

Average Points Line at Etihad: 188

 

Notable Trends:

Carlton have been a strong betting proposition at the line at Etihad with a 7/1 record this year. They are also 8/4 as underdog. They are 12/7 to the over in opening quarters. 

 

Geelong (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 15/4 (48/15)

ATS: 9/10 (30/37)

Night: 9/1 

Night ATS: 5/5 (19/17)

Etihad S/U: 3/0 

Etihad ATS: 1/2 (5/8)

6 day or less break: 4/4

6 day or less break ATS: 3/5 (12/12)

Fav: 14/3

Fav ATS: 8/9 (21/34)

Q1 S/U: 15/4

1H S/U: 16/3

  

Over/Under

O/U: 8/11 (34/33)

Etihad: 2/1 (7/6)

6 day or less break: 3/5 (12/12)

Night: 6/4 (19/17)

1Q: 8/11

1H: 7/12

 

Points

Average scored: 91.4

Average conceded: 80.8

Average Total: 172.3

Average Points Line: 178.7

 

Notable Trends:

The Cats are 21/34 ATS since 2012 when starting as favourites.

 

 

Verdict and Bets:

Carlton at the spread was of some interest early in the week when the line was as big as +22.5 but with the line now at +13.5 i think the value has swung the other way.

Geelong have won the last 5 against the Blues, by 5, 16, 12, 2 and 42. They have also not lost at Etihad since Round 3 of the 2012 season and they have won seven straight since.

I think this will be close, but I like the Cats to come out ahead. 

1 unit Geelong by 1-24 at $3.40 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

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