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AFL: Carlton v North Melbourne: Preview and Betting Tips
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By Tom Sermani  @tom_sermani

Carlton meet North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium on Friday night and if we get to see a match anywhere near as exciting as the last time the two teams met the neutrals, at least, will be happy. In that match in round 17 last year Carlton beat North 109 to 108 in an absolute thriller. 

 

Carlton (from 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 5/11 (28/34)

ATS: 8/8 (31/31)

Night S/U: 1/8

Night ATS: 4/5 (16/20)

Etihad S/U: 4/2 

Etihad ATS: 5/1 (13/11)

6 day break S/U: 0/4

6 day break ATS: 1/3 (7/9)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/7 (32/29)

Etihad: 4/2 (14/10)

6 day break: 2/2 (6/12)

Night: 6/3

 

Points

Average scored: 87.8

Average conceded: 98

Average Total: 185.8

Average Points Line: 181.8

Average Scored at Etihad: 108.7

Average Conceded at Etihad: 90.3

Average Points Line at Etihad: 187

 

Q1 S/U : 7/8/1

1H S/U: 6/10

 

Notable Trends:

Carlton have been poor in night games in 2014 with a 1/8 record but have over performed compared to their overall record both straight up and ATS at Etihad where they are 4/2 and 5/1. Carlton are a better 1st quarter team than their overall record suggests they should be. 

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 10/6 (34/26)

ATS: 9/7 (33/28)

Night S/U: 4/5 

Night ATS: 4/5 (9/9)

Etihad S/U: 5/2

Etihad ATS: 5/2 (13/15)

6 day break S/U: 3/3

6 day break ATS: 3/3 (11/11)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 5/11 (26/35)

Etihad: 2/2 (15/18)

6 day break: 2/4 (7/15)

Night: 6/3 (10/8)

 

Points

Average scored: 87.5

Average conceded: 75.8

Average Total: 163.2

Average Points Line: 179.8

Average Scored at Etihad: 95.1

Average Conceded at Etihad: 82.4

Average Points Total at Etihad: 177.5

Average Points Line at Etihad: 190.2

 

Q1 S/U : 8/8

1H S/U: 7/9

 

Notable Trends:

North Melbourne have been a good unders side in 2014 at 5/11 and have also gone 7/15 to the unders off 6 day breaks since 2012. They are 6/3 to the overs in night games in 2014, however. 

 

Verdict and Tips:

Carlton are a much better side at Etihad than anywhere else (as are North, it should be said) and their 85 point victory over the Saints and especially their five point loss to Geelong in their two most recent games at the venue suggest they could be overpriced for a shock result tonight. 

They have won three of the last five against North and Mick Malthouse is 4-0 in matches coaching against Brad Scott, who worked under malthouse at Collingwood. 

North have also been inconsistent with losses to Adelaide and Brisbane in the last five weeks as well as an impressive victory against the Hawks. 

 

 

Bets:

1 point Carlton to win the match at $4.25 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

1/2 point Carlton to win by 16+ at $7.50 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

1 point Carlton to win the 1st qtr at $2.70 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

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