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AFL: Collingwood v Adelaide - Betting Preview and Tips
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani

 

The MCG is the venue for the Pies against the Crows on Sunday and this sees a team coming into form, the Crows, take on a team whose form has completely tailed off, the Pies.

The Crows have an inconsistent win record of late but their win in round 15 against Port Adelaide and their 2 goal defeat by Hawthorn in round 17 – with a 68 point thrashing of GWS in between – suggests the Adelaide side could be finding their best form at the right end of the season. 

The Magpies on the other hand are in apparent free fall, losing four of their last five games after sitting on a 8-3 record coming into round 13. 

 

 

 

Collingwood (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 9/7 (39/21)

ATS: 7/9 (26/38)

Twilight: 1/1 

Twilight ATS: 0/2 (5/9)

MCG S/U: 7/3

MCG ATS: 5/5 (16/25)

7 day + break: 6/3

7 day + break ATS: 4/5 (19/24)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 6/10 (22/42)

1Q: 9/7

1H: 6/10

MCG: 4/6 (19/22)

7 day + break: 2/7 (15/28)

Twilight: 1/1 (4/10)

 

Points

Average scored: 84.7

Average conceded: 79.4

Average Total: 164.1

Average Points Line: 175.4

Average Scored at MCG: 85.2

Average Conceded at MCG: 77

Average Total at MCG:  162.2

Average Points Line at MCG: 84.4

Q1 S/U: 9/7

1H S/U: 9/7

 

Notable Trends:

Collingwood have been strong at the MCG in 2014, and off a 7+ day break. They are a good unders team at 6/10 this year and 22/42 since the start of 2012. They have a 9/7 record to the over in opening quarters, however. They are 2/7 (15/28) to the under off the long break. 

 

 

 

Adelaide (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 8/8 (36/27)

ATS: 7/9 (35/27)

Twilight:  1/3

Twilight ATS: 1/3 (8/9)

Interstate S/U: 3/4 

Interstate ATS: 2/5 (16/12)

7 day + break: 5/4 

7 day + break ATS: 4/6 (23/21) 

 

Over/Under

O/U: 8/8 (33/36)

1Q: 7/9

1H: 6/10

Interstate: 3/4 (16/12)

7 day + break: 4/6 (22/22)

Twilight: 1/3 (8/9)

 

Points

Average scored: 93.8

Average conceded: 86.5

Average Total: 180.3

Average Points Line: 181.9 

Average Scored Interstate: 95.3

Average Conceded Interstate: 85.1

Average Total Interstate:  180.4

Average Points Line Interstate:183.2 

Q1 S/U: 6/10

1H S/U: 6/10

 

Notable Trends:

The Crows have not been too kind ATS in 2014 when outside of Adelaide, covering twice in seven games. They are 8/8 over/under but a solid 6/10 to the under in first halves. 

 

 

Verdict and Tip:

I lean towards the unders here but not with too much confidence on a line set at 172.5.

Once again this week we will turn to Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13 and their ‘money back if beaten by 20 or fewer points’ offer and go with 1 unit on the Crows at $1.92

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