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AFL: Collingwood v Hawthorn
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani

 

Collingwood v Hawthorn

 

 

Collingwood (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 11/10 (41/24)

ATS: 9/12 (28/41)

Night: 6/4

Night ATS: 5/5 (17/19)

MCG S/U: 8/5

MCG ATS: 6/7 (17/27)

6 day or less break:

6 day or less break ATS:

Underdog: 1/3

Underdog ATS: 1/3 (8/11)

Q1 S/U: 7/11

1H S/U: 7/11

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/12 (25/47)

MCG: 6/7 (10/17)

6 day or less break: 4/3 (7/14)

Night: 4/6 (11/25)

1Q: 9/12

1H: 8/13

 

Points

Average scored: 81.6

Average conceded: 83.6

Average Total: 165.1

Average Points Line: 174.8

Average Scored at MCG: 81.9

Average Conceded at MCG: 78.8

Average Total at MCG: 160.8

Average Points Line at MCG: 173.7

 

Notable Trends:

Collingwood are 17/27 ATS at the MCG since 2012 and 28/41 overall.

They have been a strong unders team at 25/47 since 2012 and 11/25 at night, 7/14 off a 6 day break and 10/17 at the MCG.

 

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 16/5 (52/13)

ATS: 12/9 (38/33)

Night: 6/3

Night ATS: 4/5 (14/13)

MCG S/U: 9/1

MCG ATS: 6/4 (21/17)

6 day or less break: 6/2

6 day or less break ATS: 3/5 (12/11)

Q1 S/U: 13/8

1H S/U: 16/5

 

Over/Under

O/U: 15/6 (44/27)

MCG: 7/3 (24/14)

6 day or less break: 6/2 (14/9)

Night: 6/3 (18/9)

1Q: 10/11

1H: 9/12

 

Points

Average scored: 111.3

Average conceded: 80.5

Average Total: 191.8

Average Points Line: 183.9

Average Scored at MCG: 115.7

Average Conceded at MCG: 76

Average Total at MCG: 191.7

Average Points Line at MCG: 183.3

 

Notable Trends:

No strong trends at the spread.

The Hawks are a strong overs team with an overall 15/6 record in 2014 and 44/27 since 2012. They are 18/9 in night games since 2012 and 24/14 at the MCG.

 

 

Verdict and bets:

I’m thinking about a 2nd half overs bet here with totals of 201, 203, 235, 232, 229 and 252 in the last six meetings between the sides and with Hawthorn scoring an average of 89.2 second half points compared to 82.6 in opening halves. 

I’m going to wait until teams are announced on Thursday night before finalising bets on this match and update the site then. 

 

BET ADDED:

1 point over 96.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

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