Reigning Premiers the Western Bulldogs take on Collingwood at the MCG tonight in the second match of the 2017 season and if our second bet cashes as easily as our first we’ll be first at the bar. Our overs bet on the Blues vs Tigers game last night cashed with 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter still to play.
The big question mark for me in this one is how will the Doggies respond on their return to the G for the first time since their finest hour in September? They are either inspired or feel some sort of let down. It’s a hard one to call but having re-watched the last quarter of the Grand Final yesterday it’s obvious that they’ll be tough to beat if they bring anything like the same intensity to this one. The Swans barely got a clean kick away in the last 10 minutes due to the frenzied pressure from the Dogs.
I’ve crunched the numbers using the Oddy Results Database that you can access here: http://oddyoddyoddy.com.au/category/afl/afl-database and the odds and lines all look about right to me and the trends don’t point to anything with any conviction. The Pies’ 4/8 over/under record at the G in 2016 made me take a second look but i don’t like it enough to recommend a bet.
The big story, apart from the returning Dogs’ skipper Bob Murphy, is the appearance of Travis Cloke in a Bulldogs uniform against his old club. His signing is a very interesting one and who are we to doubt the wisdom of Luke Beveridge?
At his best Cloke is a dominant forward with the ability to kick a shit-load of goals and he will be keen and confident of doing just that against his old teammates.
He’s as short as $4.50 to kick most goals so the $7 with Unibet could well be too big. I think it is.