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AFL: Crows v Eagles - Trends, Stats and Tips
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By Tom Sermani  @Tom_Sermani

 

The Crows play the Eagles on Saturday afternoon at Adelaide Oval and they are hitting form at the pointy end of the season while the Eagles have disappointed their supporters for the most part of 2014, including last week when losing to the Tigers in a low scoring match at Patersons Stadium. 

 

Adelaide (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 9/8 (37/27)

ATS: 8/9 (36/28)

Day: 6/2

Day ATS: 5/3 (21/10)

Adelaide Oval S/U: 5/4

Adelaide Oval ATS: 5/4

6 day or less break: 3/3

6 day or less break ATS: 3/3 (12/7)

Fav: 6/3

Fav ATS: 5/4 (23/17)

Q1 S/U: 7/10

1H S/U: 7/10

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/8 (34/30)

Adelaide Oval: 5/4 

6 day or less break: 4/2 (11/8)

Day: 3/5 (17/14)

1Q: 8/9

1H: 6/11

 

Points

Average scored: 94

Average conceded: 86.2

Average Total: 180.2

Average Points Line: 181.4

Average Scored at Adelaide Oval: 92.6

Average Conceded at Adelaide Oval: 87.6

Average Total at Adelaide Oval: 180.1

Average Points Line at Adelaide Oval: 180.8 

 

Notable Trends:

The Crows are 21/10 at the line in day games since 2012 and 12/7 in the same time period off a short break. 

 

 

 

West Coast (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 7/10 (31/30)

ATS: 5/12 (26/37)

Day: 4/4

Day ATS: 3/5 (16/21)

Interstate S/U: 3/4

Interstate ATS: 2/5 (12/16)

7 day + break: 5/8

7 day + break ATS: 4/9 (17/25)

Underdog: 0/5 

Underdog ATS: 2/3 (8/14)

Q1 S/U: 10/7

1H S/U: 9/8

 

Over/Under

O/U: 6/11 (31/32)

Interstate: 2/5 (12/16)

7 day + break: 4/9 (22/30)

Day: 4/4 (25/9)

1Q: 8/9

1H: 6/11

 

Points

Average scored: 84

Average conceded: 79.4

Average Total: 164.1

Average Points Line: 176.8

 

Notable Trends:

West Coast are 2/5 ATS on their travels this season, 8/14 as underdog and 4/9 off a long break. They have a good opening quarter record at 10/7. 

Their general points trend to the under but in day matches since 2012 they are 25/9 to the over.

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

With the players at their disposal West Coast should be a better team than they are and for this reason they are often overrated. This view is backed up by their 5/12 record against the handicap line in 2014.

They’ve beaten the Lions, Saints (twice), Suns, Giants, Demons and Bulldogs this year and lost against all the sides above them on the ladder (plus Carlton and Richmond). 

What they have done is start well, leading at quarter time against Hawthorn, Fremantle, Collingwood and Carlton before going on to lose each match. 

Adelaide are hitting top form and are worthy 5 goal favourites, with both Dangerfield and Thompson set to start. 

Both sides are 6/11 to the under in first halves.

 

Bets:

1/2 unit West Coast to lead at half time and Adelaide to lead at full time at $8.0 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

1/2 unit West Coast to win the 1st quarter at $3.25 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

1/2 unit WCE/AC/AC/AC in the qtr by qtr market at $9.0 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

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