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AFL: Essendon v West Coast - Trends, Stats & Tips
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By Tom Sermani @Tom_Sermani

 

Essendon ($1.62) v West Coast ($2.58) Line -9.5 Total: 180.5

 

Essendon welcome back their skipper Jobe Watson and classy defender Michael Hibberd for the clash against the West Coast Eagles at Etihad in Saturday’s twilight game.  They will be without Jake Carlisle , however, and the Bombers have been heavily reliant on his goals in recent weeks. 

West Coast have suddenly found a rich vein of attacking form in the last two weeks, scoring 136 against Adelaide before putting 126 on Collingwood. 

 

 

Essendon (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 10/9 (35/28)

ATS: 9/10 (30/33)

Twilight: 3/1

Twilight ATS: 1/3 (4/6)

Etihad S/U: 4/4 

Etihad ATS: 4/4 (10/18)

7 day + break: 9/5

7 day + break ATS: 7/7 (24/23)

Fav 0-15.5 points: 2/1

Fav 0-15.5 ATS: 2/1 (9/5)

Q1 S/U: 13/6

1H S/U: 11/8

 

Over/Under

O/U: 6/13

Etihad: 3/5 (12/16)

7 day + break: 4/10 (20/27)

Twilight: 1/3 (6/4)

1Q: 5/14

1H: 5/14

 

Points

Average scored: 81.7

Average conceded: 77.2

Average Total: 158.9

Average Points Line: 177.2

Average Scored at Etihad: 83.6

Average Conceded at Etihad: 85.6

Average Total at Etihad: 169.3

Average Points Line at Etihad: 184.3

 

Notable Trends:

The Bombers have strong unders trends with an overall record of 6/13 and a 4/10 record off 7 day + breaks. 

 

 

West Coast (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 9/10 (33/30)

ATS: 7/12 (28/37)

Twilight: 4/3 

Twilight ATS: 3/4 (7/9)

Etihad S/U: 1/1

Etihad ATS: 0/2 (3/6)

6 day or less break: 2/2

6 day or less break ATS: 1/3 (9/12)

Underdog: 1/5

Underdog ATS: 3/3 (18/17)

Q1 S/U: 11/8

1H S/U: 11/8 

  

Over/Under

O/U: 8/11 (33/32)

Etihad: 0/2 (4/5)

6 day or less break: 2/2 (9/12)

Twilight: 2/5 (3/13)

1Q: 8/11

1H: 9/10

 

Points

Average scored: 89.5

Average conceded: 80.1

Average Total: 169.6

Average Points Line: 176.7

 

 

Notable Trends:

The Eagles are 7/12 at the line in 2014 and 0/2 at Etihad. they are 2/5 to the under in Twilight games which takes their record in these games to 3/13 since 2012. 

 

 

Verdict and Bets:

I like the under 180.5 points here. West Coast might struggle to match the attacking intensity of the last two weeks off a 6 day break and on their travels against the Bombers whose defensive unit will improve with Hibberd in the team. Jake Carlisle missing cannot help the Bombers’ cause up front. The under 90.5 with looks a strong betting option too.  

I also think there’s enough there to go with the Bombers at the current line.

1 unit under 180.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

1 unit under 90.5 1st half points at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-07 13.02.14

1 unit Essendon -9.5 points at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.52.45

LATE BET ADDED: Jobe Watson is $23 for 1st goal and he could just start forward with Carlisle out.

.5 units on Watson 1st goal at $23 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

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