As Hawthorn tore into Geelong last week I was scrambling around – unsuccessfully – trying to get on the early line of Hawthorn -18.5 against the Bombers. They were as dominant as they looked at any point over the last two seasons when they have gone on to lift the flag.
Now, however, with the line in the mid 30’s there are reasons to think the Bombers might make a fight of this.
There are two way to look at Essendon’s defeat in Sydney in round 1. On one hand you can say that they came very close to beating one of the best sides in the competition on their own turf and should, to use racing terminology, come on for the run, after the poor pre season most of their players had faced.
On the other hand you could reasonably suggest that the Swans took their time to hit their stride, were going away at the finish and were value for more than a two goal win.
Essendon have an extra days rest and have a good recent record as two goal plus underdogs, winning three of eight and covering the spread in seven of those matches since the start of 2014.
Let’s hope the Bombers’ have pulled up well from their round 1 match and the Hawks get a little over confident.