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AFL: Finals Week 1
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Richmond v Hawthorn – MCG

 

Qualifying Final, Thursday Night, Line -17.5, Total 156.5 – Showers

Richmond are 18-4 SU, 12-10 ATS, 12-10 Over in 2018

Hawthorn are 15-7 SU, 14-8 ATS, 10-12 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS in finals under Damian Hardwick

  • Richmond are 20-0 SU, 16-4 ATS in their last 20 matches at the MCG

  • Hawthorn are 11-6 SU, 11-6 ATS in their last 17 games at the MCG

  • Richmond are 14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 night matches at the MCG

    • 9 by under 39.5 points

  • Richmond are 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS in their last 5 matches against Hawthorn

    • Under is 3-2

  • Under is 8-2 in Richmond’s last 10 night matches at the MCG

  • Under is 4-1 in Hawthorn’s last 5 night matches at the MCG

  • Each of the last 4 Richmond matches at the MCG have been won by 1-39

  • Hawthorn are 7-5-1 SU in their last 13 matches as underdogs

    • All 5 losses have been by 1-39

  • Minor Premiers are 8-1 SU, 5-3 ATS in Qualifying Finals since 2010

    • Minor Premiers 1-39 is 5-3

Comments: I was tossing up between under 156.5 or Richmond 1-39 as I think both will happen, but I’ve decided to go with the latter due to the fact that I feel Richmond will win, and if they win by more than 39 points it’s highly unlikely that there will be less than 156.5 points scored, so going Richmond 1-39 allows me some flexibility on how many goals are scored. Richmond 84-70.

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Richmond 1-39 @ $2.05 (Pointsbet)

 

 

 

Melbourne v Geelong – MCG

Elimination Final, Friday Night, Line -3.5, Total 173.5

Melbourne are 14-8 SU, 15-7 ATS, 12-10 Over in 2018

Geelong are 13-9 SU, 12-10 ATS, 9-13 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS against Geelong since 2014

    • 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS at the MCG

  • Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams

  • Over is 1-4 in the 5 Melbourne matches played at night in 2018

  • Melbourne are 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS at the MCG in 2018

  • Geelong are 11-10 SU, 7-14 ATS at the MCG since 2016

  • Geelong are 8-13 SU, 8-13 ATS in night matches at the MCG since 2012

  • Geelong are 5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS away from GMHBA Stadium in 2018

  • In Elimination Finals, 5th placed sides are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS against 8th placed sides since 2010

    • Over is 8-1

      • 1-1 in night games

    • Since 2011, Over is 9-5 in Elimination Finals

      • 3-5 in night games

 

Comments: You can make an argument for and against in just about every market – head to head, lines, and total points scored – so I’m going to avoid this one and just enjoy what should be a good game of footy!

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Gary Ablett over 28.5 Disposals @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Sydney v GWS Giants – SCG

Elimination Final, Saturday Twilight, Line -4.5, Total 158.5

Sydney are 14-8 SU, 10-12 ATS, 11-11 Over in 2018

GWS Giants are 13-8-1 SU, 10-12 ATS, 9-13 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS in their last 6 matches against GWS

  • Sydney are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS against GWS at the SCG since 2015

  • Lachie Whitfield has had 15 and 17 touches against Sydney in 2018

  • GWS are 5-5-1 SU, 4-7 ATS in away matches in 2018

  • Sydney are 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS at the SCG in 2018

  • Sydney are 10-9 SU, 11-8 ATS in finals under John Longmire

    • 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS as favourites

    • 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS at the SCG

  • Over is 6-0 in the last 6 Elimination Finals played before 6pm

 

Comments: Lachie Whitfield has been tagged in both of the Battle of the Bridge clashes in 2018, and Sydney have won them both. Why change a winning formula?

Recommended Bet: 2u Lachie Whitfield under 24.5 disposals @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

West Coast v Collingwood – Optus Stadium

Qualifying Final, Saturday Night, Line -7.5, Total 167.5

West Coast are 17-5 SU, 13-9 ATS, 11-11 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 15-7 SU, 13-9 ATS, 11-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS against Collingwood since 2014

  • West Coast are 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS Collingwood in Perth since 2012

  • Collingwood are 10-12 SU, 22-6 ATS as underdogs in interstate matches since 2012

    • Under is 15-7

  • West Coast are 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS when both Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling are playing in 2018

    • 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS at Optus Stadium

      • Average winning margin = 55.75

    • West Coast are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS in finals under Adam Simpson

      • Under is 5-1

    • Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between the two teams

    • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 2nd Qualifying Finals

 

Comments: The Under has been a winning bet in both when these two play, and in qualifying finals (especially in 2nd Qualifying Finals), so I have no reason why I shouldn’t back this.

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 165.5 Total  at $1.9 with Sportsbetting.com.au

 

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