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AFL: Finals Week 1
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By @oddyAFL

 

After the nonsense of round 23 (despite tidy profits for us) it is nice to be able to look forward to four matches in which all teams are actually trying their best to win.

 

 

 

West Coast  vs Hawthorn

Heavy rain is forecast in Perth on Friday which has seen the total points line put in at 164.5. We’ll be keeping a beady eye on the weather forecast as if the rain misses the overs is the bet of the century!

As far as fining the winner goes this is not an easy task, as it shouldn’t be in a finals match. The difference in the end could be the home advantage West Coast holds in front of a crowd that should be even more vociferous than usual. 

1 unit West Coast +6.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-05-27 08.55.43

 

 

 

 

Fremantle vs Sydney

Fremantle finished the home and away season in the strange position of being 2 points clear at the top of the ladder yet with only the 6th best %.

The Dockers were brilliant in the first half of the season but losses to the Hawks, Eagles, Kangaroos and Port in the 2nd half of the year –  with three of those losses in the last month – have left Ross Lyon’s side without the required level of form to win a flag. 

Sydney will be without key forward Lance Franklin for the finals after he suffered a seizure and the Swans should use this as motivation in their finals campaign. 

They have bundles of finals experience  and in Kurt Tippett and a wealth of talent in midfield they have the weapons to go deep into September. 

1 unit Sydney +19.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

0.5 units Sydney to win at $3.50+ (current odds $3.65) on Screenshot 2015-09-09 10.46.08

 

 

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide

This is impossible to call with any certainty and the bookies agree with best odds of $1.98 and $2.0.

Both teams love to attack, however, and I think the total points line has been set a few points too low in what should be good weather at the MCG.

1 unit over 182.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

 

Richmond vs North Melbourne

I don’t think Brad Scott’s policy of resting players for last week’s match against the same opponents will pay off and with Richmond’s players now having some September experience with this the 3rd consecutive year they’ve made the finals, I can see the Tigers taking this one. 

1 unit Richmond -7.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2015-03-18 17.20.26

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