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AFL: Fremantle v Carlton - Betting Preview and Tips
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By Tom Sermani

 

Carlton travel to Perth on the back of a good win against North Melbourne while the Dockers will be keen to put their shocking performance against the Saints firmly behind them. 

 

Fremantle (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 12/5 (42/18)

ATS: 10/7 (39/27)

Night: 4/2

Night ATS: 4/2 (12/8)

Patersons S/U: 8/1

Patersons ATS: 7/2 (22/12)

6 day or less break: 1/5

6 day or less break ATS: 0/6 (6/13)

Fav 30+ points: 3/0

Fav 30+ points ATS: 3/0 (11/4)

Q1 S/U: 11/6

1H S/U: 12/5

  

Over/Under

O/U: 5/12 (23/43)

Patersons: 3/6 (12/22)

6 day or less break: 2/4 (7/12)

Night: 1/5 (5/15)

1Q: 5/12

1H: 3/14

 

Points

Average scored: 90.9

Average conceded: 68.3

Average Total: 159.2

Average Points Line: 165.4

Average Scored at Patersons: 94.3

Average Conceded at Patersons: 56

Average Total at Patersons:  150.3

Average Points Line at Patersons: 164.3

 

Notable Trends:

Freo are 1/5 head to head off a short break in 2014 and 0/6 ATS. They are 7/2 at the line at home, however, and 11/4 as 30+ favs since 2012. 

All points total trends point to the under.

 

 

 

Carlton (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 6/11 (29/34)

ATS: 9/8 (32/31)

Night: 2/8 

Night ATS: 5/5 (17/20)

Interstate S/U: 0/3

Interstate ATS: 0/3 (6/5)

6 day or less break: 1/4 

6 day or less break ATS: 2/3 (8/9)

Underdog 30+: 0/3

Underdog 30+ ATS: 2/1 (2/1)

Q1 S/U: 8/8/1

1H S/U: 7/10

 

Over/Under

O/U: 10/7 (33/30)

Interstate: 1/2 (4/10)

6 day or less break: 3/2 (7/10)

Night: 7/3 (20/17)

1Q: 11/6

1H: 12/5

 

Points

Average scored: 89

Average conceded: 97.3

Average Total: 186.3

Average Points Line: 182.3

 

Notable Trends:

No strong trends at at the line and conflicting trends on total points with a 4/10 record to the under since 2012 but a 7/3 trend to the over in 2014 at night. 

 

Tips:

There’s enough there to like the unders with the line set at 168.5 and I lean towards Freo at the line despite their record off the short break this year.

 

1 unit under 168.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

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