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AFL: Fremantle v Hawthorn - Trends, Stats and Tips
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By Tom Sermani @Tom_Sermani

 

Fremantle v Hawthorn

Hawthorn travel to Perth and are likely to line up without either Roughead or Gunston in their forward line. The Dockers, who came within a kick of beating Geelong at Simonds stadium last week, will be confident of turning around a wretched record against the Hawks which has seen them lose  nine of the last ten and the last six.

 

 

Fremantle (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 13/6 (43/19)

ATS: 11/8 (40/28)

Day: 6/1

Day ATS: 4/3 (22/14)

Patersons S/U: 9/1

Patersons ATS: 7/3

7 day + break: 11/1

7 day + break ATS: 11/1 (34/14)

Q1 S/U: 12/7

1H S/U: 13/6

 

Over/Under

O/U: 6/13 (24/44)

Patersons: 3/7

7 day + break: 4/8 (17/31)

Day: 2/5 (13/23)

1Q: 6/13

1H: 4/15

 

Points

Average scored: 89.9

Average conceded: 69.5

Average Total: 159.4

Average Points Line: 165.3

Average Scored at Patersons: 93.2

Average Conceded at Patersons: 58.2

Average Total at Patersons: 151.4

Average Points Line at Patersons: 164.9

 

Notable Trends:

Fremantle have been almost unstoppable off a 7+ day break in 2014 with a 11/1 straight up record and the same at the line. Their only defeat off a long break came last week by 2 points at Geelong.

They have very strong trends to the under and have restricted  their opposition to an average of just 58.2 points at Patersons Stadium.

 

 

Hawthorn (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 15/4 (51/18)

ATS: 11/8 (37/32)

Day: 6/1

Day ATS: 6/1 (20/12)  

7 day + break: 10/2

7 day + break ATS: 9/3 (26/21)

Q1 S/U: 12/7

1H S/U: 15/4

Over/Under

O/U: 14/5 (44/26)

7 day + break: 8/4 (29/18)

Day: 5/2 (21/11)

1Q: 11/8

1H: 9/10

 

Points

Average scored: 113.3

Average conceded: 79.4

Average Total: 192.7

Average Points Line: 184.4

 

Notable Trends:

Hawthorn have been strong at the line in day games at 6/1 and also off the long break at 9/3.

The Hawks are a strong overs team with an overall record of 14/5. They are 5/2 in day games and 8/4 off a 7 + day break.

 

 

 

Verdict and Bets:

 Lots of conflicting trends make this a tricky match to assess but the thing that swings it in Hawthorn’s favour is their excellent head to head record against the Dockers. They have won the last six and nine of the last ten.

1 unit Hawthorn to win the match at $2.20 with Screenshot 2014-05-27 08.55.43

 

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