The two most defensive teams in the competition meet at the TIO Stadium in Darwin and most observers will be expecting a low scoring affair. We are no different.
The over/under line is set at 148.5 and while we are going to leave this market alone we are going to get involved in a couple of other ‘unders’ markets.
Melbourne are 3/11 over/under with an average of 64.4 points scored and 82.4 conceded. They are 0/2 off a 6 day break.
Fremantle are also 3/11 with 89.5 scored and 67.8 conceded. They are 2/7 off a 7 day + break.
The line for Melbourne points is set at 56.5 and this is not low enough. The Dees have scored 51 points or fewer against Collingwood, West Coast, Sydney, GWS and St Kilda in 2014 while Freo have held Brisbane, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and West Coast to 54 points or fewer.
Ross Lyon has his best defender back in Luke McPharlin and you can bet your life the Dockers copped a proper earful from Lyon over last week’s leaky 4th quarter defence in the local derby against West Coast where they conceded 39 points.
Fremantle have conceded an average of 30.6 1st half points and the Dees have scored an average of 28.6. Add those together for 59.2 and the 1st half points line of 73.5 looks like good value.