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AFL: Geelong v Fremantle: Stats, Trends and Tips
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By Tom Sermani  @tom_sermani

 

Geelong v Fremantle

 

Fremantle make the trip to Simonds to take on the Cats on Saturday night and this promises to be a thriller, if not a particularly high scoring one.

Geelong have won their last 5 matches at home by an average of 48 points while the Dockers have struggled to dominate games for a few weeks now. 

 

 

Geelong (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 14/4 (47/15)

ATS: 9/9 (30/36)

Night: 8/1

Night ATS: 5/4 (19/16)

Simonds S/U: 5/0 

Simonds ATS: 4/1 

7 day + break: 10/0

7 day + break ATS: 6/4 (18/24)

Fav: 5/1

Fav ATS: 4/2

Q1 S/U: 14/4

1H S/U: 15/3

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/11 (33/33)

Simonds: 2/3

7 day + break: 4/6 (21/21)

Night: 5/4 (18/17)

1Q: 8/10

1H: 6/12

1Q at Simonds: 4/1

1H at Simonds: 4/1

 

Points

Average scored: 92

Average conceded: 80.9

Average Total: 172.9

Average Points Line: 179.8

Average Scored at Simonds: 107.8

Average Conceded at Simonds: 59.4

Average Total at Simonds:  167.2

Average Points Line at Simonds: 179.9

 

Notable Trends:

The Cats are 10/0 at the line off a long break this season and 4/1 at the line at Simonds. They are 4/1 to the over in opening quarters and opening halves at Simonds. 

 

 

Fremantle (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 13/5 (42/25)

ATS: 10/8 (40/21)

Night: 5/2

Night ATS: 4/3 (12/9)

Interstate S/U: 4/4 

Interstate ATS: 3/5 (17/15)

7 day + break: 11/0 

7 day + break ATS: 10/1

Underdog: 1/2

Underdog ATS: 1/2 (12/14)

Q1 S/U: 12/6

1H S/U: 13/5

  

Over/Under

O/U: 5/13 (23/44)

Interstate: 2/6 (11/21)

7 day + break: 1/6 (14/29)

Night: 1/6 (5/16)

1Q: 6/12

1H: 3/15 

 

Points

Average scored: 90.5

Average conceded: 68.8

Average Total: 159.3

Average Points Line: 165.7

 

 

Notable Trends:

Fremantle, like Geelong, are very strong off a long break at 11/0 straight up. They are better ATS however at 10/1 compared to 6/4 for the Cats. 

Freo, with Ross Lyon’s renowned defensive structures, have strong trends to the unders. 

 

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

Geelong have won their five games at Simonds this season by an average of 48.4 points and Freo’s poor recent form point me towards the Cats at the line here while the total points in the first quarter is set at a low 35.5 so the Cats 4/1 record to the overs is interesting here. 

There has been much media talk of Steve Johnson’s renewed rivalry with Freo tagger Ryan Crowley and it’s just possible that Johnson will start in the forward line to try and negate Crowley’s efforts a little in the opening quarter. 

 

Bets:

1 unit Geelong – 13.5 at $1.94 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

1 unit over 35.5 1st quarter points at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

1/2 unit Steve Johnson to kick the first goal at $21 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

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