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AFL: Geelong vs Western Bulldogs
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Round 9 kicks off with the Cats vs the Dogs at Simmonds Stadium and by the looks of the radar – and the tumbling total – it will probably be raining cats and dogs too.

 

The Cats have lost their last three games and the Dogs have lost two of their last three so both will be keen – no shit, Sherlock – to get a win tonight. 

 

Geelong were the one decent team the Bulldogs didn’t beat in their Premiership year and they now haven’t beaten the Cats in their last 10 attempts. 

 

Last week the Cats were beaten by the Bombers and there has been much talk of their poor tackle count – 40 – in the match. Freo average fewest tackles per match in 2017 with 56 so the discussion is a fair one but i’d rather look to more meaningful stats such as the Cats having 3 more scoring shots and 11 more inside 50’s. 

 

I’d also like to bet that the Cats top their average tackles per game of 64 tonight by some margin. 

 

 

 

Geelong are traditionally very strong at home and at Simonds they are:

 

  • 19/4 S/U & 14/9 ATS since 2014

  • 12/4 S/U & 9/7 ATS since 2015

  • 7/1 S/U & 6/2 ATS since 2016

  • In the wet since 2014 they are 11/4 S/U but 4/11 ATS

 

 

The Dogs away from Etihad are:

 

  • 17/17 S/U and 18/16 ATS since 2014

  • 14/2 S/U and 14/12 ATS since 2015

  • 11/5 S/U and 10/6 AYTS since 2016

In the wet since 2014 they are 4/2 S/U and 3/3 ATS

 

I’m happy to back the Cats against anyone at home at odds against and the $2.20 available with  is solid value for 1 unit. 

 

EDITED 11.45am 19/05

I reckon there’s more than a 50% chance of the rain either missing or being very light for this match now and therefore recommend 2 units on over 148.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 and if the rain does arrive then it should be no problem getting out at a similar line. 

 

 

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