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AFL: Grand Final
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by @thetrendbettor

 

West Coast Eagles v Collingwood – MCG

Grand Final, Saturday Afternoon, Line +7.5, Total 161.5

West Coast are 19-5 SU, 15-9 ATS, 12-12 Over in 2018 

Collingwood are 18-7 SU, 15-10 ATS, 11-14 Over in 2018 

 

Key Trends: 

– West Coast have beaten Collingwood in both meetings in 2018

– West Coast beat Collingwood by 35 points at the MCG in round 17

– West Coast beat Collingwood by 16 at Optus Stadium in the QF

– Each of the last 6 Grand Finals have been played between a Victorian side and an interstate side

– Victorian sides are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS

– West Coast are 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS when both Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy play together in 2018 

– Collingwood are 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS at the MCG in 2018

– 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS as favourites

– Collingwood are 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS against interstate sides at the MCG in 2018 

– West Coast are 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS away from Optus Stadium in 2018 

– 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS at the MCG

– Over is 14-5 in the last 19 day matches at the MCG

– Over is 3-4 in the last 7 Grand Finals

– In his last 5 matches against the Eagles, Steele Sidebottom’s highest disposal tally is 27

– Taylor Adams lowest Fantasy Score in this finals series is 110

– This guy’s playing style is made for finals

 

 

Comments: 

If you had said that these two teams would be playing off in the Grand Final at the start of the year, not only would have you been hysterically laughed at and potentially been locked up in a mental asylum, you would also now be very, very rich! At one point in April, the Magpies were paying a whopping $81 to lift the premiership cup, and the Eagles drifted out to $51 after their round 1 loss. Considering where these two clubs were in the scheme of things only 5 months ago, I believe this is a bigger underdog story than what we’ve seen from the Bulldogs in 2016, and the Tigers in 2017. It just goes to show, that none of us have absolutely any idea what is about to transpire for the next few months when the season starts and I guess that’s the absolute beauty of this sport, and sport in general – it really is the greatest form of reality entertainment you could possibly ask for!

 

 

 

Head to Head Prediction:

I’m leaning towards the West Coast Eagles for a couple of reasons. The reasons are that the Eagles have beaten the Magpies in both meetings this season, one was at the MCG, and the other was only a few weeks ago in Perth. On top of that, the Eagles have won all 11 matches that power forwards Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling have played together. 11/11, 100%… WOW! I’m still backing the Eagles, but one main trend that is stopping me from placing a big stake is the fact that interstate sides have lost each of the last 6 Grand Finals against Victorian sides. Even though the Eagles have won both of their games at the MCG this year, I can’t ignore that stat. 

Official Bet: 1 unit – West Coast Eagles win @ $2.30 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Why Eagles Head to Head and not Against the Spread/Line?

The reason why I’m betting the Eagles to win, and not for them to cover +7.5, is due to the fact that each of the last 8 teams who covered the spread/line, all won the premiership outright (including 4 underdogs).

 

 

Why Eagles Head to Head and not 1-39?

Despite the fact that Collingwood rarely get beaten by more than 39 points, 3 of the last 4 Grand Finals have been decided by more than 39 points. I would have the Eagles valued at $1.95-2.05 so I’ll take the $2.30 without capping it with a margin.

 

 

Player Props:

Steele Sidebottom has been heavily limited in terms of disposals in his last 5 matches against the Eagles (although he did poll Gary Ayres Medal votes in the Qualifying Final), with 27 being his highest disposal tally in his last 5 matches against West Coast. There is not a doubt in my mind that the Eagles’ underrated run-with player, Mark Hutching will go to the Brownlow Medal runners-up and Gary Ayres Medal leaders, and I expect him to make Sidebottom work extra hard for his possessions.

Official Bet: 2 units – Steele Sidebottom Under 28.5 Disposals @ $1.80 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

When I think of Collingwood vice-captain Taylor Adams, I think of a player that is as hard as nails who never takes a timid step when attacking the footy – the sort of player that you need to have in your side to win a Premiership – so there is no surprise that he has tallied up over 110 points in each of his 3 matches in this finals campaign. I expect him to turn up the ferocity in the last Saturday in September with a stat-line that will push 30 disposals (most of them contested), and 10+ tackles. 

Official Bet: 2 units – Taylor Adams Over 108.5 Fantasy Points @ $1.87 (Ladbrokes/Sportsbet)

 

 

Norm Smith Medallist

Taylor Adams 

Read Above

Jack Redden


Redden had rejuvenated his career this season, winding back the clock to the player that the Eagles were expecting him to be when they initially traded for him – a player who came 3rdin Brisbane’s Best and Fairest as a 21 year old. Since round 5, Redden has racked up 25 disposals or more in 15 of 19 matches, and is currently coming second in the Gary Ayres Medal so we know that he isn’t frightened of the big stage.

Elliot Yeo

 

Apart from Josh Kennedy, this player is arguably the Eagles’ most important player. He’s super consistent and will get the ball all over the ground. He received the maximum 10 votes in the Gary Ayres Medal when the Eagles beat the Pies in the Qualifying Final, so we should be expecting a big game from the utility. 

Official Bets: 

– 0.25 Units – Adams Norm Smith Win @ $17 (Bet365/Ladbrokes)

– 0.25 Units – Adams Norm Smith Top 3 @ $6.50 (Bet365)

– 0.25 Units – Redden Norm Smith Win @ $16 (Bet365)

– 0.25 Units – Redden Norm Smith Top 3 @ $5.50 (Bet365)

– 0.25 Units – Yeo Norm Smith Win @ $11 (Bet365/Sportsbet)

– 0.25 Units – Yeo Norm Smith Top 3 @ $3.50 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Season Closing Comments

Wow, what an incredible season that we’ve had! Prior to the big dance between West Coast and Collingwood, personally, our 2018 Season looks a little something like this:

Win-Loss-Push: 105-86-1

Units Staked: 289.5

Units Profited: 55.02

Return on Investment %: 19.01%

In layman’s terms, you would’ve profited $2,751 if your average stake was just $50, simply by following my recommended bets!

 

Every week from March up until now, I spent countless hours updating my database, identifying trends, and sharing these trends via either Twitter or by OddyOddyOddy, so it’s great to see that all of the hard work I put into this not only pays off for myself, but it’s even better knowing that I am contributing to other people’s success!

I would like to thank everyone who has contributed throughout the season, no matter how big or how small. Whether it be in the form of a question, a trend request, a congratulatory tweet / re-tweet, a like, reading my weekly previews, or even a tweet filled with constructive criticism, it is all very much appreciated.

My biggest thanks undoubtedly goes out to @OddyOddyOddy who have given me the opportunity to give me a platform to share what I love doing (looking up stats and sharing them with others) – if it weren’t for them, @TheTrendBettor would only be a little twitter handle with no scope within the wagering industry. I say with great sadness that I will no longer be writing for this great website in the future as I have ambitions of someday starting my own website. While I may be moving on from OddyOddyOddy, I will never forget the fact that the owner of this website (who also happens to be a ripper of bloke) took a chance on someone who was practically unproven – but who also feels as passionate about the wagering industry as he does  with the responsibility to represent his website with my information.Thank you mate!

I’ll still be using my twitter handle (@TheTrendBettor) over the summer, but as soon as I find out what I will be doing in the long term future, I will be the first to disclose it.

Enjoy Grand Final day, and let’s end the season with a duffle bag full of winnings!

Cheers, 

@TheTrendBettor

 

 

Editor’s Note

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