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AFL: GWS v Adelaide
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The GWS Giants welcome the Adelaide Crows to Spotless stadium on Saturday afternoon with both sides having found a bit of decent form in recent weeks.

Adelaide beat neighbours Port Adelaide last Sunday to keep up their win one lose one trend they’ve been on since round 6 while the Giants had won their last two matches before losing to the Swans in round 15. The Giants have covered the spread in their last five matches. 

 

GWS (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 4/10

ATS: 8/6 (30/28)

Spotless S/U: 3/2

Spotless ATS: 4/1

7 day+ break: 6/4 (21/23)

Day: 2/5 (17/23)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/7 (30/28)

Spotless: 1/4

7 day+ break: 5/5 (26/18)

Day: 4/3 (22/17)

 

Average Points 

Ave points for: 83.4

Ave points against: 108.4

Ave points line: 184.4

Ave total points scored: 191.8

Ave points line at Spotless: 185.5

Ave total points scored at Spotless: 165.2

 

Notable Trends

GSW have decent records ATS (4/1) and to the under (4/1) at their home ground in 2014. 

 

 

Adelaide

S/U: 5/9

ATS: 6/8 (34/27)

Away from Adelaide: 1/5

6 day break: 2/2 (11/6)

Day: 4/3 (20/10)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 6/8 (31/30)

Away from Adelaide: 2/4

6 day break: 2/5 (9/8)

Day: 2/5 (16/14)

 

Average Points 

Ave points for: 90.6

Ave points against: 86.3

Ave points line: 181.8

Ave total points scored: 176.9

Ave points line away: 181.3

Ave total points scored away: 175.2

 

Notable Trends

The Crows are 1/5 interstate ATS in 2014 but 20/10 ATS in day matches since 2012.

 

Verdict:

The total points line is set at 192.5 and this looks high enough with 4 of GWS’s last 5 matches and 7 of Adelaide’s last 9 going under the total. The average points scored at Spotless stadium is also just 165.2.

 

Bet:

1 point under 192.5 points at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15

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