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AFL: Hawks v Swans - Betting Preview and Tips
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By Tom Sermani  @tom_sermani

 

Hawthorn take on Sydney in Saturday night’s blockbuster from the MCG and the place should be absolutely rocking given the form of both sides and of course Buddy Franklin playing against his old team.

Sydney have won their last 12 matches by an average of 41.8 points and have Kurt Tippett back while the Hawks will be improved by the return of key defender Josh Gibson after returning to winning ways in round 17 against the resurgent Crows in Adelaide.  

 

Hawthorn (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 12/4 (48/12)

ATS: 9/7 (35/31)

Night S/U: 4/3

Night ATS: 2/5 (12/13)

MCG S/U: 6/1

MCG ATS: 4/3 (19/16)

7 day + break S/U: 8/2

7 day + break ATS: 7/3 (24/21)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 12/4 (41/25)

MCG: 5/2 (22/13)

7 day + break: 7/3 (28/17)

Night: 5/2 (17/8)

 

Points

Average scored: 114.1

Average conceded: 81.6

Average Total: 195.7

Average Points Line: 185.3

Average Scored at MCG: 120.6

Average Conceded at MCG: 75.7

Average Total at MCG: 196.3

Average Points Line at MCG: 185.1

Q1 S/U: 9/7

1H S/U: 12/4

 

Notable Trends:

The Hawks are 8/2 straight up and 7/3 ATS off a 7+ day break in 2014 and 6/1 straight up at the MCG. They are 2/5 ATS at night, however.

All trends point strongly towards the over. 

 

 

 

 

Sydney (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 13/3 (44/15/1)

ATS: 9/7 (37/29)

Night S/U: 8/1 

Night ATS: 5/4 (13/15)

MCG S/U: 2/0 

MCG ATS: 0/2 (2/6)

7 day + break S/U: 7/3

7 day + break ATS: 5/5 (28/19)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 6/10 (29/37)

MCG: 0/2 (3/5)

7 day + break: 3/7 (21/26)

Night: 3/6

 

Points

Average scored: 96.7

Average conceded: 67.4

Average Total: 164.1

Average Points Line: 174.7

Average Scored away from SCG & ANZ: 94.6

Average Conceded away from SCG & ANZ: 61.5

Average Total away from SCG & ANZ: 156.1

Average Points Line away from SCG & ANZ: 173.6

Q1: 13/3

1H: 14/2

 

Notable Trends:

The Swans are 8/1 straight up in 2014 night games and 7/3 off a 7+ day break. Their overall  record, 7+ day breaks and night game total points trend towards the under. 

 

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

The Hawks trend towards the over points line is canceled out somewhat by the Swans trend towards the under, although I do lean towards the over here but without enough confidence to suggest a bet. 

In Round 8 of this season the Swans beat the Hawks 107-88 at ANZ with Kurt Tippett kicking four goals but the thing that sticks in the mind about that game was Buddy Franklin’s performance. He kicked 0-7 in the first three quarters of the match and only in the final period did he kick two important goals, the second of which gave the Swans a 10 point margin. 

I can see Buddy putting things right on Saturday and having a field day against Gibson or Schoenmakers which could make the difference. 

Tip:

I’m going to tip Sydney to win but will wait and watch Sportsbet’s odds to take advantage of their ‘lose by 20 money back offer’. They are currently $1.85 but I think we’ll get $1.90. 

EDITED: Right on cue Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13 have pushed the Swans out to $1.90 so that’s a 1 unit bet, with money back up to $100 if they lose by 20 points or less. 

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