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AFL: Hawthorn v Geelong
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By Tom Sermani

 

Hawthorn v Geelong

Odds: $1.66, $2.30

Line: -7.5

Total Points Line: 187.5

 

The second and third placed teams on the ladder go head to head in what could be a full dress rehearsal for a qualifying final in a couple of weeks. 

The Hawks will be keen to bounce back from the defeat they suffered at the hands of the Dockers in round 21 with a win here against a Cats team who once again managed to come out on top after looking like going down to Carlton last week.

The Hawks should welcome back defenders Matthew Suckling and Matt Spangher from injury while Jarryd Roughead returns from a one match ban and should team up with Jack Gunston who it is reported has pulled up well after the Freo defeat. Cyril Rioli will not be seen until the first week of the finals, if at all this season.

The Cats look likely to be without Stevie Johnson again as he recovers from a foot injury but they should name both Jimmy barrel and Jordan Murdoch in their squad to face the Hawks. 

If i was a Cats fan i’d be worried about the fitness of Tom Hawkins. He’s not moved with any fluency in the last couple of weeks where he’s totalled a single goal in the two games. Chris Scott has played down suggestions that Hawkins’ back is troubling him again but i’m not convinced at all. 

 

 

Hawthorn (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 15/5 (51/13)

ATS: 11/9 (37/33)

Night: 5/3

Night ATS: 3/5 (13/13)

MCG S/U: 8/1 

MCG ATS: 5/4 (20/17)

6 day or less break: 5/2

6 day or less break: 2/5 (11/11)

Fav 0-15 points: 4/2

Fav 0-15 pointsA TS: 3/3 (12/7)

Q1 S/U: 13/7

1H S/U: 16/4

 

Over/Under

O/U: 15/5 (44/26)

MCG: 7/2 (24/13)

6 day or less break: 6/1 (14/8)

Night: 6/2 (18/8)

1Q: 12/8

1H: 10/10

 

Points

Average scored: 112.2

Average conceded: 81

Average Total: 193.1

Average Points Line: 183.8

Average Scored at MCG: 118.1

Average Conceded at MCG: 76.6

Average Total at MCG: 194.7

Average Points Line at MCG: 182.9

 

Notable Trends:

Hawthorn are 3/5 ATS off a short break in 2014 and are a very strong overs team, overall, at the MCG and off a short break. 

 

 

 

 

Geelong (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 16/4 (49/15)

ATS: 9/11 (30/38)

Night: 10/1 

Night ATS: 5/6(18/25)

MCG S/U: 4/0

MCG ATS: 3/1 (9/6)

7 day + break: 11/0

7 day + break ATS: 6/5 (18/25)

Underdog: 1/1

Underdog ATS: 1/1 (9/3)

Q1 S/U: 16/4

1H S/U: 17/3

 

Over/Under

O/U: 8/12 (34/34)

MCG: 1/3 (8/7)

7 day + break: 5/6 (22/21)

Night: 6/5 (19/18)

1Q: 8/12

1H: 7/13

 

Points

Average scored: 91

Average conceded: 80.6

Average Total: 171.6

Average Points Line: 179.5

Average Scored at MCG: 94

Average Conceded at MCG: 68.8

Average Total at MCG: 162.8

Average Points Line at MCG: 176.3

 

Notable Trends:

The Cats are 9/3 at the line as underdogs since 2012.

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

Geelong have won 12 of the last 13 meetings between the two sides, with Hawthorn only victorious in their Preliminary Final win last year. The Cats got back on top in round five of this season with a 106-87 win at the MCG when they only pulled away in the final quarter. The fitness of Tom Hawkins is a worry but it’s something the Cats have dealt with in the past, and I may be wrong and he could come out bouncing and kick five goals. 

Tip: 

1 unit Geelong to win by between 1 and 20 points at $4.25 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

I also like the look of the second half overs with both teams conceding more in the 2nd halves of their matches. Hawthorn average 35.45 points against in 1st halves in 2014 and 45.5 in 2nd halves. Geelong average 35.4 conceded in 1st halves and 45.2 in 2nd halves.

Hawthorn also average almost 5 points more themselves in 2nd halves although Geelong score on average 7.25 points more in opening halves. 

There is rain forecast in Melbourne over the weekend, however, so we are on a watching brief as far as points bets goes until the weather picture becomes clearer. 

EDITED: The weather looks like it will be fine in Melbourne on Saturday so we’ll play 1 unit on over 94.5 2nd half points at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

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