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AFL: Melbourne v Geelong - Betting Preview and Tips
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Melbourne take on Geelong at 1.45pm at the MCG on Saturday and there are showers forecast for the area.

 

Melbourne (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 4/11 (10/49)

ATS: 7/8 (25/34)

Day S/U: 2/6

Day ATS: 4/4 (15/21)

MCG S/U: 3/6

MCG ATS: 5/4 (18/17)

7 day + break S/U: 3/9

7 day + break ATS: 5/7 (19/28)

Underdog by 31 points or more ATS : 1/1 (14/18)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 3/12 (22/37)

MCG: 2/7 (15/20)

7 day + break: 3/9 (20/27)

Day: 1/7 (16/20)

 

Points

Average scored: 62.3

Average conceded: 83.4

Average Total: 145.7

Average Points Line: 167.8

Average Scored at MCG: 63.7

Average Conceded at MCG: 83.8

Average Total at MCG: 147.5

Average Points Line at MCG: 167.5

 

Notable Trends

No strong trends at the line. Melbourne are one of the strongest ‘unders’ teams in the total points markets.

 

 

Geelong (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 11/4 (44/15)

ATS: 7/8 (28/35)

Day S/U: 4/0

Day ATS: 3/1 (9/14)

MCG S/U: 3/0

MCG ATS: 2/1 (8/6)

6 day or less break S/U: 3/4

6 day or less break ATS: 2/5 (11/12)

Fav by 31 points or more: 2/2 (4/14)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/6 (35/28)

MCG: 1/2 (8/6)

6 day or less break: 3/4 (12/11)

Day: 1/3 (12/11)

 

Points

Average scored: 89.9

Average conceded: 83.7

Average Total: 173.6

Average Points Line: 180.3

 

Notable Trends

Geelong have a poor long term record as 31+ points favourites at the spread at 4/14 but appear to have steadied the ship in this respect at 2/2 this season.

 

 

Verdict and Bets

Geelong have had a real stronghold on Melbourne in recent years, unsurprisingly given their respective positions on the ladder, but this Dees side under Paul Roos are a different proposition even if their win record hasn’t improved a whole lot.

Geelong have been unimpressive for the most part this season but are still 11/4 and sat in 5th place on the ladder, on the same points as Port Adelaide in 3rd spot with Freo sandwiched between them.

I lean towards Melbourne getting 36.5 points but I can’t really have it as a solid betting proposition.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record we are going to look to the unders again here, with showers forecast and Melbourne’s strong trend to the unders.

 

Bet: 

Under 164.5 points with Screenshot 2014-07-03 11.06.45

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