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AFL: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
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The Demons meet the Bulldogs at the MCG on Saturday night. The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight while the Dees exceeded expectations last weekend with a great win in Adelaide against the Crows. 

I make the line of Bulldogs -17.5 about right but there looks like there’s some value in the total points market. 

Melbourne have gone under the total points spread in all 7 matches this season by an average of 10 points and are now 19 over and 32 under since the start of the 2012 season.

They are 3/8 at night, 17/22 off a 7+ day break, 15/22 in Victoria and 11/20 as underdog in Victoria in the same time period. 

The Bulldogs are 24/27 since the start of 2012, 3/8 as favourite and 3/9 at night.

The line is low: over/under 156.5 is the best you’ll get but, with the way Melbourne are playing under Paul Roos, I think it should be even lower. 

Total points under 156.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-07 13.02.58

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