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AFL: North Melbourne v Hawthorn
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By Tom Sermani

 

Round 16 kicks off at the Etihad Stadium on Friday night with North Melbourne hosting the reigning Premiers, Hawthorn.

Hawthorn are coming off their 5th straight victory and the Kangaroos a loss to Brisbane.

 

North Melbourne  (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 8/6

ATS: 8/6

Etihad 4/2

Etihad ATS: 4/2 (22/10)

6 day break ATS:  2/3 (10/11)

At Night: 3/4 (8/8)

Home Underdog: 4/2 (16/3)

Off a loss S/U: 5/0

Off a loss ATS: 5/0

 

Over/Under: 4/10

O/U at Etihad: 0/5 (13/13)

O/U off a 6 day break: 1/4 (6/15)

O/U at night: 2/6 (6/11)

 

1st Quarter S/U: 6/8

Half time S/U: 5/9

 

Notable Trends: 

North have been strong at the line at Etihad since 2012 with 22 wins and 10 losses and as the home state underdog with 16 and 3. They are undefeated in 2014 coming off a loss at 5 and 0 and their record of 4/10 (6/15) in the over/under market points to the unders.

 

 

 

Hawthorn  (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 11/3

ATS: 8/6

Etihad 1/0

Etihad ATS: 0/1 (3/5)

6 day break ATS:  2/3 (11/9)

At Night: 3/2 (13/10)

Home Fav: 7/4 (25/21)

 

Over/Under: 10/4

O/U at Etihad: 0/1 (4/3)

O/U off a 6 day break: 4/1 (12/8)

O/U at night: 3/2 (15/8)

 

1st Quarter S/U: 8/6

Half time S/U: 11/3

 

Notable Trends: 

A strong overs team in 2014 with an 10/4 record and 15/8 to the overs since 2012 in night games.

 

 

Verdict:

A strong unders team meets a strong overs team and the line is set at 195.5. A line this high with some rain forecast for Friday afternoon/evening leans us towards the unders here.

North are a strong proposition at the line, especially at Etihad and as home state underdogs and with Hawthorn 3/5 ATS at Etihad, and neutral ATS records in other categories, we are pointed towards North at the line of +25.5. North also have a 5/0 record both straight up and ATS when coming off a loss in 2014 so can be expected to come out fighting.

The first quarter record of Hawthorn is also interesting. They have won 8 and lost 6 so far in 2014 and have won just 2 of their last 7 opening periods. North are 6/8 and were in front by 16 at the first break when losing in the last round against the Lions.

 

Bets:

North Melbourne +25.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 

Under 195.5 points at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 

North to win 1st Quarter at $2.70 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

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