Oddy Oddy Oddy - Logo
AFL: Port Adelaide v Carlton
free bets bet 365

By Tom Sermani

 

Port Adelaide v Carlton

Odds: $1.46, $2.90

Line: -15.5

Points Line: 174.5

 

Port Adelaide have their sights on a return to the top four with a win here against Carlton who last week came out of their loss to Geelong with some credit.

 

Port Adelaide (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 13/7 (30/24)

ATS: 10/10 (34/32)

Night: 3/2 

Night ATS: 3/2 (11/4)

Adelaide Oval S/U: 8/3

Adelaide Oval ATS: 7/4 (16/19 homestate)

6 day or less break: 2/2 

6 day or less break ATS: 1/3 (8/8)

Fav: 5/3 

Fav ATS: 5/3 (9/5)

Q1 S/U: 12/8

1H S/U: 11/9

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/13 (28/38)

Adelaide Oval: 3/8 (13/22 homestate)

6 day or less break: 2/2 (8/8)

Night: 1/4 (4/11)

1Q: 7/13

1H: 8/12

 

Points

Average scored: 97.2

Average conceded: 77

Average Total: 174.1

Average Points Line: 179.2

Average Scored at Adelaide Oval: 100.9

Average Conceded at Adelaide Oval: 70.6

Average Total at Adelaide Oval: 171.5 

Average Points Line at Adelaide Oval: 181.3

 

Notable Trends:

Port are 7/4 ATS at Adelaide Oval in 2014. They have been a good betting proposition for unders backers at 7/13 this season and 1/4 at night (4/11 since 2012) and 3/8 at their home ground. 

 

 

 

Carlton (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 7/13 (30/36)

ATS: 12/8 (35/31)

Night: 2/10

Night ATS: 7/5 (17/20)

Interstate S/U: 0/4

Interstate ATS: 1/3 (7/8)

7 day + break: 6/7

7 day + break ATS: 8/5 (25/23)

Underdog: 4/9

Underdog ATS: 9/4 (19/13)

Q1 S/U: 9/10/1

1H S/U: 8/12

 

Over/Under

O/U: 10/10 (33/33)

Interstate: 1/3 (4/11)

7 day + break: 7/6 (26/21)

Night: 7/5 (20/18)

1Q: 12/8

1H: 13/7 

 

Points

Average scored: 88.2

Average conceded: 93.9

Average Total: 182.1

Average Points Line: 182.8

 

Notable Trends:

Carlton are 12/8 at the line this season and 9/4 as underdog. They are 0/4 straight up when on their travels however and 1/3 ATS. 

They are 1/3 to the under interstate and 4/11 since 2012. 

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

Port scrapped their way to a win in the wet against the Suns last week and they’ll be glad to get back to Adelaide Oval where they should be able to return to their natural running game which has shown signs of coming back to something like they showed in the first half of the season in recent weeks. 

Carlton have done well not to down tools in the last two months as their season has effectively been over since then. If they go down early to Port I can see them struggling to raise the effort to get back into the match. Port have lost their last seven at the line, however, so it’s unlikely to be a complete blow-out. 

The strongest trends point to the under for Port and with Carlton 4/11 to the under when on the road since 2012 I’m happy to go with that.

 

1 unit under 174.5 points at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *