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AFL: Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans: Stats, Trends and Tips
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani

 

Port Adelaide v Sydney Swans

 

The stuttering Port Adelaide host the Sydney swans at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night and they really need a win if they are finish in the top four come the end of the home and away season. 

Sydney are in very good form and are strengthened by the return of both Lance Franklin and Dan Hannebury.

 

Port Adelaide (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 12/6 (29/32)

ATS:  10/8 (34/36)

Night: 3/1 

Night ATS: 3/1 (11/3)

Adelaide Oval S/U: 8/2 

Adelaide Oval ATS: 7/3

6 day or less break: 2/1

6 day or less break ATS: 1/2 (8/7)

Underdog: 2/1

Underdog ATS: 3/0 (20/17)

Q1 S/U: 11/7

1H S/U: 11/7

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/11 (28/36)

Adelaide Oval: 3/7

6 day or less break: 2/1 (8/7)

Night: 1/3 (4/10)

1Q: 7/11 

1H: 8/10

 

Points

Average scored: 101.6

Average conceded: 78.2

Average Total: 179.8

Average Points Line: 181.4

Average Scored at Adelaide Oval: 105.2

Average Conceded at Adelaide Oval: 69.3

Average Total at Adelaide Oval: 174.5

Average Points Line at Adelaide Oval: 182.3

 

Notable Trends:

Port are 3/1 and 11/3 since 2012 ATS in night games and 7/3 ATS in 2014 at Adelaide Oval. They are 1/3 and 4/10 since 2012 to the over at night. 

 

 

Sydney (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 14/4 (45/1/16)

ATS:  9/9 (37/31)

Night: 9/2

Night ATS:  5/6 (13/17)

Interstate S/U: 7/1 

Interstate ATS: 5/3 (18/14)

7 day + break: 4/7

7 day + break ATS: 5/6 (28/20)

Q1 S/U: 14/4

1H S/U: 15/3

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/11 (30/38)

Interstate: 4/4 (16/16)

7 day + break: 4/7 (22/26)

Night: 4/7 (9/21)

1Q: 5/13

1H: 5/13

 

Points

Average scored: 95.6

Average conceded: 68.8

Average Total: 164.4

Average Points Line: 174.8

 

 

 

Notable Trends:

Sydney are a strong unders team at night at 4/7 and 9/21 since 2012.

 

 

Verdict and Bets:

It’s hard not to see the Swans running out winners here, especially with Franklin and Hannebury returning but at the current line of -18.5 I don’t think they are a viable betting proposition at Adelaide Oval where Port have never started as underdogs. There were also signs in last weekend’s loss to the Pies at the MCG that they could be coming out of their form slump.

I think Sydney will win but perhaps not by enough to cover the spread. 

1 unit Sydney by 1-39 points at $2.10 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

1 unit Sydney by 1-24 points at $3.20 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

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