This looks an extremely difficult match to call with Port Adelaide showing improved form when going down by 10 points to Sydney (we were on Sydney -10.5 – ouch) while the Pies went toe to toe with Freo before going down by just 7 points.
Let’s not even bother trying to call the winner and instead look to the total points market for some value.
It’s been very profitable to side with the unders when the Pies play interstate (4/15 since 2012) while the Adelaide Oval has also seen 10 matches go under at night with only 4 going over.
Port are 1/7 to the under at their home ground at night.
There is also a shower forecast for the 2nd half which is a bonus.
1 unit under 171.5 at $1.85 with
Under 169.5 at $1.93 with is just as good an option, although I prefer to have the extra couple of points with me rather than the bigger odds.