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AFL: Richmond v Brisbane
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The Brisbane Lions make a rare trip to the MCG on Saturday afternoon to take on Richmond having won their last game against North Melbourne. The Tigers are also coming off a win, after beating St Kilda in round 15. 

 

Richmond (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 4/10

ATS: 7/7

MCG S/U: 1/7

MCG ATS: 4/4 (17/18)

7 day + backup ATS: 4/5 (22/21)

 

Over/Under

2014: 6/8

MCG: 2/6 (13/22)

DAY: 3/4 (13/20)

7 day + backup: 5/4 (20/24)

 

1st Quarter

S/U: 7/7

MCG: 3/5

 

Average Points

Average Points Scored: 85.3

Average Points Against: 88.4

Average Points Scored at MCG : 70.2

Average Points Against at MCG: 94.6

Average Points Line: 178.4

Average Points Total: 173.6

Average Points Line at MCG: 174.1

Average Points Total at MCG: 164.9

 

Notable Trends:

Richmond are a decent side for unders backers at the MCG and in day matches. They are 1/7 straight up at the MCG in 2014 but on closer inspection they were only favourites in two of the seven, winning one of them, against Melbourne. The six losses at the MCG included defeats by 20 points to Freo, 11 points to Sydney and 5 points to Geelong. 

For a team at 4/10 overall they have a fair 1st quarter record at 7/7.

 

 

Brisbane  (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 4/10

ATS: 5/9

MCG S/U: 0/0

MCG ATS: 0/0 (2/1)

7 day + backup ATS: 5/6 (24/22)

 

Over/Under

2014: 6/8

MCG: 0/0 (2/1)

DAY: 2/2 (14/11)

7 day + backup: 6/5 (24/22)

 

1st Quarter

S/U: 3/11

 

Average Points

Average Points Scored: 65.4

Average Points Against: 105.5

Average Points Line: 174.7

Average Points Total: 170.8

Notable Trends:

None.

 

Verdict: 

Richmond may have been a little under rated here with their 1/7 record at the MCG not bearing the closest scrutiny but the line of 36.5 looks about right.

The 1st quarter odds of $1.30 for the Tigers makes no appeal, nor does the line of -8.5.

 

Bet:

If you have a Screenshot 2014-07-03 11.06.45 account then under 180.5 at $1.83 is a bet, if not then this looks like one to watch, or not as the case may be. 

 

 

 

 

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