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AFL: Richmond v Essendon - Stats, Trends and Tips
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By Tom Sermani  @tom_sermani

 

Richmond v Essendon

The Tigers take on the Bombers to kick off round 20 in what should be a close encounter at the MCG.

The Tigers have won 5 straight, something they have not done since the year 2000, while the Bombers lost little in defeat against the Swans last week.

The last time these two teams met was in round 11 when the Bombers (also off the back of a loss to the Swans) came out 104-54 winners. 

 

 

Richmond (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 8/10 (33/38)

ATS: 9/9 (33/30)

Night: 3/5 

Night ATS: 4/4 (12/10)

MCG S/U: 3/7 

MCG ATS: 4/5 (17/19)

6 day or less break: 1/4

6 day or less break ATS: 3/2 (9/7)

Underdog: 4/6

Underdog ATS: 7/3 (16/10)

Q1 S/U: 11/7

1H S/U: 11/7 

 

Over/Under

O/U: 7/11 (24/39)

MCG: 2/8 (13/24)

6 day or less break: 1/4 (3/13)

Night: 3/5 (13/21)

1Q: 8/10

1H: 7/11

 

Points

Average scored: 85.9

Average conceded: 83.4

Average Total: 169.3

Average Points Line: 178

Average Scored at MCG: 73

Average Conceded at MCG: 87.3

Average Total at MCG: 160.3 

Average Points Line at MCG: 175.4

 

Notable Trends:

Richmond are 3/7 straight up at the MCG this year but 7/3 ATS as underdog at all venues and 16/10 since 2012.

They are 2/8 to the under at the MCG and 13/24 since 2012. They are 1/4 to the under off a 6 day or less break (3/13 since 2012) and 13/21 since 2012 at night. 

 

 

 

Essendon (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 10/8 (35/27)

ATS: 9/9 (30/32)

Night: 7/5 

Night ATS: 8/4 (20/16)

MCG S/U: 3/2

MCG ATS: 3/2 (12/7)

7 day + break: 9/4

7 day + break ATS: 7/6 (24/22)

Fav: 6/2

FAV ATS: 2/6 (15/20)

Q1 S/U: 12/6

1H S/U: 11/7

 

Over/Under

O/U: 5/13 (24/38)

MCG: 1/4 (5/14)

7 day + break: 3/10 (19/27)

Night: 3/9 (12/24)

1Q: 5/13

1H: 4/14

 

Points

Average scored: 82

Average conceded: 76.2

Average Total: 158.2

Average Points Line: 177.9

 

Notable Trends:

Essendon have a decent ATS record at the MCG since 2012 at 12/7 but the really strong trends are all to the unders on the total points markets. Every trend points one way – under. 

 

 

 

 

Verdict and Tips:

I like Essendon at the line of -4.5 points and just have to go with the unders too. The line is set at 164.5 so there’s not too much room for manoeuvre perhaps but there are also plenty of reasons to think that the low line might not be low enough. 

The last 5 meetings between the two teams (all at the MCG) have totalled 158, 169, 153, 159 and 137 for an average of 155.2. 

The average points scored in Richmond games at the MCG in 2014 has been 169.3 and for the Bombers games at the venue, 165.8. With two teams with such strong trends to the under i expect the total to go a fair bit lower than both of those averages. I’d have the points line at 159.5 here. 

 

Tips:

1 unit Essendon -4.5 at $1.93 with Screenshot 2014-05-07 13.02.14

1 unit under 164.5 total points at $1.9 with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05

1 unit under 80.5 1st half points at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

1 unit under 40.5 1st quarter points at $1.88 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

 

 

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