By Vince Eager
Richmond and Port Adelaide meet at Etihad Stadium with Richmond having found a bit of form and Port looking to find a bit after their hot early season form has tailed off somewhat.
Closer inspection of the two teams’ respective recent results suggests that there has been a bit of an overreaction to both teams’ most recent form. Port have lost 3 of their last 4 but those matches were lost to Sydney, Adelaide and Essendon – 3 of the in-form sides of the competition., and with losing margins of 4 points to Sydney and 2 points to Essendon it’s obvious that those games could have gone either way. Had Port won those games the odds would be vastly different today.
There looks to have been some recency bias (putting too much stock in the most recent events) in assessing Richmond’s chances today too. Sure, they’ve won their last two games but at $1.14 and $1.12 against St Kilda and Brisbane, so they should have.