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AFL: Richmond vs Carlton
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By @OddyAFL

 

Last week we noted a nice trend towards Richmond underperforming against the spread when favourites and over performing as underdogs.

We wrote the following:

  • The Tigers are 1/7 ATS as 20+ point favourites since the start of last year (5/3 straight up).

  • They are 0/7 ATS as 20+ point favs at the MCG.

These numbers, after they beat GWS without covering (perfect for our 1-24 margin bet) now read 1/8 ATS as 20+ point  favs and 0/8 ATS as 20+ point favs at the MCG.

Again, i like Richmond to win but not to cover the spread.

Ladbrokes are again offering even money on Richmond (for $20) so we may as well utilise this offer in a somewhat unorthodox method.

Back Richmond at $2.0 with Screenshot 2014-05-27 08.55.43

Back Carlton +23.5 at $2.01 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

If you have $20 on each of those you’ll get the following returns:

Richmond win by 0-23: +$40

Richmond win by 23+: Level

Carlton win: Level

 

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