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AFL: Richmond vs Essendon
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A great result last night with the Hawks getting up at a huge $6 with the 2 unit line bet never in doubt.

 

 

Ive spent a bit of time on Bulldogs vs Saints and Melbourne vs Gold Coast and haven’t ended up hanging my hat on anything with St Kilda +16.5 the closest I came to pulling the trigger, or hanging my hat, or shooting my hat stand. 

 

 

At first glance I thought Richmond looked a likely bet at -2.5 to beat Essendon but their 8/11 record at the line at the MCG since the start of last year put me off along with Essendon’s 7/4 record in the same period and the Dons have already beaten the Hawks, Pies and Cats at the venue in 2017. 

 

 

The total points market does look like offering a bit of value with 2017 totals at the MCG – and in general – averaging around 10 points more than in the previous few years. 

 

 

  • In 2017 the average MCG game in dry conditions has averaged 185 points and 183 at night.

  • Essendon games have averaged 200 points in 2017

  • Richmond games have averaged 179 in 2017

  • Richmond are 6/5 over/under since 2016

  • Essendon are 7/4 over/under since 2016

 

1 unit over 174.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

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