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AFL: Richmond vs GWS
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By @OddyAFL

 

This match appears to be a case of one team riding the crest of a wave against a team on a rapid slide towards the foot of the ladder. 

Richmond have beaten both Fremantle and Sydney on the road in recent weeks while the Giants have lost four straight after looking so good for the first third of the season.

Richmond, however, have a far superior record against the spread when playing top half teams as the underdog. 

 

 

  • The Tigers are 1/7 ATS as 20+ point favourites since the start of last year (5/3 straight up).

  • They are 0/7 ATS as 20+ point favs at the MCG.

  • As underdogs of 20+ points they are 7/1 ATS.

 

The Giants on the other hand are 11/4 ATS as 20+ point underdogs (3/12 s/u).

While it’s hard to see the Giants beating the Tigers without Mumford or Phil Davis it could be a fair bit closer than the current line of 32.5 suggests. 

 

1 unit Richmond to win by 1-24 at $3.90 with Screenshot 2015-02-28 15.16.54

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