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AFL: Round 10 Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

 

Collingwood $1.44 v Western Bulldogs $3.05 – Etihad Stadium

 

Friday Night, Line -17.5, Total 171.5

 

 

Collingwood 5-4 SU & ATS, 4-5 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS, 3-6 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS against the Bulldogs since 2014

    • All matches have been decided by 21 points or under

  • Collingwood are 5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2014

  • Bulldogs are 3-2 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • “Under” is 7-2 in Friday Night matches in 2018

 

Comments:

The Bulldogs aren’t exactly playing great footy at the moment, but they have been getting the better of the Pies in the last few years. Both teams will be desperate for a win here, and with both teams being stuck in the pack, a loss (especially for the Bulldogs) will be a massive opportunity missed. The last 5 matches between these two sides have been decided by under 21 points, and I expect it to happen again.

Recommended Bet: 2u Either Team Under 24.5 Points @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Richmond $1.12 v St Kilda $8.50 – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -41.5, Total 165.5

Richmond are 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS & Over in 2018

St Kilda are 1-7-1 SU, 2-7 ATS, 2-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 2-2 SU & ATS against St Kilda since 2015

  • Richmond are 18-2 SU, 17-3 ATS at the MCG since the start of 2017

  • St Kilda are 3-3 SU & ATS at the MCG under Alan Richardson

  • Richmond are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS the week after playing in Perth, under Damien Hardwick

 

Comments: Richmond are playing at the MCG, coming off a loss; what more do I need to say? The Saints are shot, and I can only see a pantsing in this one.

Recommended Bet: 2u Richmond -41.5 @ $1.91 (William Hill)

 

 

 

Brisbane $3.40 v Sydney $1.36 – GABBA

Saturday Twilight, Line +18.5, Total 180.5

Brisbane are 1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 Over in 2018

Sydney are 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS against the Lions since 2010

    • 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS at the Gabba

  • Brisbane are 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home matches

  • Brisbane have not won a first quarter all season

  • Sydney are 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 away matches

 

Comments: The Lions were absolutely superb against the Hawks last week, and as good as they were, that’s going to be a tough act to follow. I don’t expect Brisbane to be able to match last week’s performance, in fact, I expect them to do just the opposite. The last winless team we saw get a win was the Blues against the Bombers, and I suspect that they may have celebrated too much during the week instead of focusing on the next one. They ended up getting belted by Melbourne by 109 points. The Swans are ripping value in both the wire to wire and line market. The Lions haven’t won a single first quarter this season, and the Swans seem to play better on the road than at home.

Recommended Bets:

  • 1u Sydney wire to wire @ $2.10 (Bet365)

  • 2u Sydney -18.5 @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

Geelong $1.06 v Carlton $11 – GMHBA Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -52.5, Total 168.5

Geelong are 5-4 SU & ATS, 2-7 Over in 2018

Carlton are 1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS in their last 9 matches against Carlton

  • Geelong are 19-0 SU, 16-3 ATS in their last 18 matches at GMHBA against teams apart from Sydney

  • “Under” is 7-1 in the last 8 matches at GMHBA

Comments: Both teams will be looking to bounce back from their respective horrible losses last week. The Cats had no answer for the Bombers – a team that hadn’t won for a month – and the Blues got embarrassed by Melbourne in their 109-point loss. I’m really stuck between two trends here: Under, or Geelong ATS. Geelong have an outstanding record at the Cattery, so I’m not going to overthink it. The Cats should bounce back with a strong performance here.

Recommended Bet: 1u Geelong -52.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

GWS Giants $1.47 v Essendon $2.90 – Spotless Stadium


Saturday Night, Line -15.5, Total 165.5

GWS are 4-4-1 SU, 1-8 ATS, 3-6 Over in 2018
Essendon are 3-6 SU & ATS, 2-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS in their last 3 matches against Essendon

  • Essendon are 2-18 SU, 7-13 ATS in their last 20 interstate matches

  • GWS are 13-2-1 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 home matches

    • 8-2-1 SU, 2-9 ATS at Spotless Stadium

Comments: Both teams have been fairly disappointing in 2018, so this game should be really interesting. Although Essendon upset Geelong last weekend, they probably still have too much left to do to make their season worth while, which leaves GWS with more to lose in this one. GWS are outside of the 8 so they should be desperate to win this game. GWS should win, but they have failed to dominate teams at their home ground, so I’m backing them to win 1-39.

Recommended Bet: 2u GWS 1-39 @ $2.10

 

 

 

Hawthorn $2.25 v West Coast Eagles $1.73 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +6.5, Total 178.5

Hawthorn are 5-4 SU & ATS, 4-5 Over in 2018

West Coast are 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 5-2 SU & ATS against the Eagles since 2014

    • 4-0 in Victoria/Tasmania

  • Hawthorn are 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS in their last 10 matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Hawthorn are 5-3-1 SU, 7-2 ATS in their last 8 matches as underdogs

  • West Coast are 7-8 SU & ATS in interstate matches since 2017

    • 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in Victoria

Comments:

People have questioned whether or not the Eagles are the real deal all season, but last week’s 47 point win against the reigning premiers should’ve cleared up those doubts. If there are any obstacles for the Eagles to pass for the public to be fully convinced, they need to win in Melbourne – something they haven’t been great in doing in recent years.

The Hawks have been pretty poor in the last couple of weeks, so they will be keen to bounce back as underdogs. I expect the Hawks to be hungry.

Recommended Bet: 2u Hawthorn win @ $2.25 (Crownbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Melbourne $1.78 v Adelaide $2.15 – Traeger Park

Sunday Afternoon, Line -5.5, Total 185.5

Melbourne are 6-3 SU & ATS, 5-4 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 6-3 SU & ATS, 2-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS at Traeger Park

  • Melbourne are 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS against Adelaide since 2014

 

Comments: It’s really hard to find trends in this one due to the fact that this is played on neutral territory, so I’m staying away from this one.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Adelaide win @ $2.15 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Fremantle $1.85 v North Melbourne $2.05 – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -2.5, Total 143.5

Fremantle are 4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 2-7 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS, 2-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS against North since 2015

  • Fremantle are 3-1 SU, 2-2 against North in WA since 2013

  • Fremantle are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS at Optus Stadium

  • North are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 away interstate matches

 

Comments: North Melbourne continuously surprise the footballing world, but they come up against a team that seem to be a different team at home than on the road. Fremantle have an unblemished ATS record at their new home, but with 10mm of rain expected, it just adds an element of doubt, so I’ll play a small stake on the bet.

 Recommended Bet: 1u Fremantle 1-39 @ 2.35 (Bet365)

 

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