I had a quick tot up and we are +3.4 units from 16 bets so far in 2016. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey as the saying goes.
We continue our quest to catch that there monkey at the MCG when Hawthorn take on Melbourne in the opener on Saturday.
The Hawks got the job done for us – just – last week when covering at the Gabba but they took a long time to hit full stride while the Dees took a 45 point beating in Alice Springs from Port Adelaide.
For a team at 5/5 Melbourne sure have had a lot of plaudits this year and their recent record at the MCG is, unsurprisingly, mediocre. They are 11/20 S/U since 2014 and 3/11 S/U as 19.5+ dogs and 7/7 ATS.
The Hawks on the other hand rarely slip up at their home ground going 24/6 since ’14, 16/14 ATS and 17/2 S/U as 19.5+ favs.
The Hawks are hitting their stride, will appreciate the return to the MCG despite losing their on their last visit to Sydney and should have enough to cover the line of -33.5 at $1.93 with
Carlton and Brisbane is next up at Etihad and i’m keen on the Blues here. They are on a roll as we have all been told a hundred times by the media but it’s the way they are going about their football that is the key. Brendan Bolton has got them playing a brand of footy that makes them very hard to score against and as a team without a forward who is going to average anywhere close to 3 goals per game it’s a battle plan that suits their list.
Brisbane on the other hand have flattered to deceive a few times against the best sides in 2016 but are still 1/8. they’ve lost their last four by 77, 78, 63 and 48 and another beating is on the cards here.
1 unit Carlton -46.4 (pick your own line) at $3.10 with
Geelong vs GWS should be a good game to watch but with the Cats losing their last two it’s hard to be as confident as one normally would be at Simonds Stadium where they hold a superb record: 15/3 S/U since 2014 and 11/7 ATS.
I’m happy to pass at the current line of -14.5. If GWS get backed and it hits single figures then I’ll be getting involved but that’s unlikely.
By my reckoning Sydney have averaged 87 points in the 16 games played in wet weather since 2014 but few would have been as wet under foot as their game at the Gold Coast Suns will be this afternoon. The wind is also picking up and the current line of 129.5 which would be lowest since i started keeping records in 2014 should not be low enough. All seven matches with lines of sub 150 points since 2014 have gone under.
Collingwood vs Port looks too tough to call so i’m not even going to try.
The Bulldogs vs West Coast at Etihad is the match of the round and I like the Dogs to get it done at home. West Coast are a much better side in front of their own fans than on their travels and i’m relentlessly impressed by Luke Beverage and his Dogs. I also like etc line to go under with the Dogs 2/8 over/under in 2016 (1/6 at Etihad) and the Eagles 3/7.