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AFL Round 11 Preview
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by @thetrendbettor

 

 

 

Sydney $1.06 v Carlton $13 – SCG

Friday Night, Line -50.5, Total 153.5

Sydney are 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 Over in 2018

Carlton are 1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

 

  • Sydney are 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS against Carlton since 2012

    • 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS in Sydney

  • Sydney are 10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS in home matches sine 2017

  • Sydney are 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday Night matches at home

  • Carlton are 1-12 SU, 5-8 ATS in their last 13 interstate matches

  • Lance Franklin has scored 4+ goals in 9 of his last 10 matches against Carlton

  • Charlie Curnow has scored a goal in 17 of his last 19 AFL matches

 

Comments: 55-point loss, 23-point win, 109-point loss, and a 28-point loss is how Carlton’s last month reads. Not only is it not pretty, it also seems to be very unpredictable – something that can be expected from such a young football team. Sydney haven’t been great at home in recent times, especially on Friday Nights for some reason, but they should continue on what ever home momentum they gained from their 59-point win in their last home game against the Dockers. I’m staying to away from choosing a line winner in this one, due to the fact that Carlton will do whatever it takes to make sure that this game is low scoring. Whether they are successful or not, that is another question. If you are thinking about playing the line, I wouldn’t discourage you from doubling up with the total points scored. If you think Carlton will cover, double it with the “Under”. If you think Sydney will win, I’d suggest doubling it with the “Over”. Bet365 are the best for such markets, as the two legs of the multi multiply individually.

 

I believe combining 2 of the player props into a Sportsbet multi (combine it with a Sydney win if you want the 3 leg refund) is the best value of the game.

 

Official Bet: 1u Franklin 3+ Goals & C. Curnow Anytime Goal Scorer @ $2.05 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs $5.50 v Melbourne $1.19 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line +34.5, Total 180.5

Western Bulldogs are 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS, 3-7 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 6-4 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 2-2 SU & ATS against the Western Bulldogs since 2015

    • 1-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Bulldogs are 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017

  • Melbourne are 4-0 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches at Etihad Stadium

    • Average winning margin of 42.5

  • Melbourne are 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS the week after playing in the NT

 

Comments:

Melbourne look like a dominant force that can’t be stopped at the moment, but although they won they beat Port Adelaide last year the week after playing in the NT, Melbourne’s record after playing in the desert is quite deplorable. They played a pretty soft Adelaide last week so they may not have too many lingering effects, but I’m not going to risk it.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Macrae Most Disposals (Group A) @ $2.33 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn $2 v Port Adelaide $1.86 – Launceston

Saturday Afternoon, Line +2.5, Total 165.5

Hawthorn are 5-5 SU & ATS, 4-6 Over in 2018

Port Adelaide are 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 6-1-1 SU, 2-6 ATS in Launceston since 2016

  • Hawthorn are 8-7-1 SU, 10-6 ATS in their last 16 matches as underdogs in VIC/TAS

  • Port Adelaide are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last matches against Hawthorn since 2014

  • Port Adelaide are 1-4 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 away matches against Hawthorn

  • “Both Teams to Score 72+” is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two sides

  • Under Ken Hinkley, Port are 3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS the week after the bye

 

Comments: Hawthorn have a great home ground advantage down in Tassie, but they have struggled in recent years against Port Adelaide overall, so I’m staying away from picking a winner in this one. “Both Teams to Score 72+” seems very low, and I just can’t figure out why it is just that low. A quick check of the weather forecast and it seems to be dry, so I’ll play this one confidently.

Recommended Bet: 2u Both Teams to Score 72+ @ $1.95 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Coast Suns $3.20 v Geelong $1.39 – Metricon Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line +18.5, Total 161.5

Gold Coast are 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS, 2-7 Over in 2018

Geelong are 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 matches against Gold Coast since 2013

    • 0-2 SU & ATS at Metricon Stadium

    • Home teams are 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS

  • Gold Coast are 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS the week after having the bye

  • Gold Coast are 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 matches at Metricon Stadium

  • Geelong are 2-5-1 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last 8 interstate matches

  • “Over” is 8-0 in Gold Coast v Geelong matches

 

Comments: The fact the all of the meetings between these two sides have gone “over” the total points scored is staring at me square in the face, but all of Geelong’s last 8 matches this season have gone “Under”. Neither team is putting up a strong argument according to the trends, so I’ll steer clear of this one.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.10 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Essendon $3.20 v Richmond $1.39 – MCG

Saturday Night, Line +19.5, Total 164.5

Essendon are 4-6 SU & ATS, 2-8 Over in 2018

Richmond are 8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS against Essendon in their last 6 meetings

    • 3-0 SU & ATS in Dreamtime matches

  • Richmond are 19-2 SU, 17-4 ATS at the MCG since the start of 2017

  • Essendon are 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS at the MCG since 2017

  • Richmond have won the 2nd half by at least 15 points in 6 of their 7 matches at the MCG in 2018

  • Essendon are 2-8 SU in 2nd halves in 2018

 

Comments: Richmond ATS at the MCG should just about always be the best bet of the round, but the fact that Essendon have seemed to find their groove in the last fortnight, combined with the fact that 4 of Richmond’s last 6 wins against Essendon have been by under 20 points, I’m reluctant to bet it. Instead, I am backing Richmond to win the second half due to the fact that I am worried that Essendon may jump out of the blocks early. If Essendon come out like they have the last two weeks, I’d expect Richmond to bounce back in the second half; or if Richmond kill Essendon’s confidence early, they could easily run away with this match with a big win. Either way, I feel quite confident that Richmond will win the 2nd half.

Recommended Bet: 2u Richmond -9.5 2H @ $1.87 (William Hill)

 

 

 

 

 

West Coast $1.06 v St Kilda $13 – Optus Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -50.5, Total 166.5

West Coast are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 4-6 Over in 2018

St Kilda are 1-8-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 3-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS against St Kilda under Adam Simpson

    • 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS in Perth

  • West Coast are 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS as 40+ point favourites at home under Adam Simpson

    • Average 132 team points

  • St Kilda are 4-16 SU, 7-13 ATS in interstate matches under Alan Richardson

    • 1-12 SU, 5-8 ATS as 30+ point underdogs

  • St Kilda have conceded 110+ points in 9 of the 13 points in interstate matches as 30+ point underdogs

 

Comments: West Coast have an exemplary record at home, especially as big favourites, so I expect them to get the job done with ease here. St Kilda’s record on the road as underdogs is nothing to be admired and they are capable of conceding a high score in such matches, so I’m double dipping in this one. I’m playing West Coast’s total team points as well, as this bet will be completely unaffected if St Kilda kick some junk time goals.

Recommended Bets:

  • 1u West Coast -50.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

  • 0.5u West Coast Over 108.5 Team Total Points @ $1.95 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne $1.28 v Brisbane Lions $4.10

Sunday Afternoon, Line -26.5, Total 175.5

North Melbourne are 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS, 2-8 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 1-9 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • North Melbourne are 4-0 SU & ATS against Brisbane since 2015

    • 1-0 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium, in 2015

  • North Melbourne are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in 2018

  • Brisbane are 1-14 SU, 11-4 ATS in matches interstate under Chris Fagan

    • 1-5 SU, 5-1 ATS at Etihad Stadium

      • All matches have been decided by under 6 goals

    • Ben Cunnington has collected over 25 disposals in 8 of his last 10 matches at Etihad Stadium

Comments: North Melbourne keep continuing to impress, and are one of only 3 teams to have an ATS record as good as 7-3 in 2018. Avoiding an upset here, and moving to 7-4 SU, will further solidify their belonging in the top 8, but they would be wise not to underestimate the Lions – a team that have covered 83% of matches at Etihad Stadium under the tenure of Chris Fagan. I was really close to playing North 1-39, but I’m going to play one of my favourite bets of 2018 due to the fact that Ben Cunnington has racked up over 25 touches in 8 of his last 10 matches at Etihad Stadium – including 3 from 4 matches in 2018.

Recommended Bets: 3u Ben Cunnington Over 23.5 Disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Collingwood $1.22 v Fremantle $5.50 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line -34.5, Total 163.5

Collingwood are 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 Over in 2018

Fremantle are 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 2-8 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against Fremantle since 2015

  • “Under” is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams

  • Collingwood are 3-3-1 SU, 4-3 ATS against interstate sides at the MCG since 2016

  • Collingwood are 15-2 SU, 6-11 ATS as 30 point favourites under Nathan Buckley

  • Fremantle are 0-4 SU & ATS in interstate matches in 2018

  • Fremantle are 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS in their last 7 matches at the MCG

 

Comments: I think Collingwood will win, but you will rarely see me betting on Collingwood as heavy favourites. They’ve shown in the past that their mentality going into a game as heavy favourites cannot be trusted, and I haven’t seen reasons as to why that will stop anytime soon. No Bet

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Collingwood 1-39 @ $ 2.30 (UBET)

 

 

 

 

 

Adelaide $1.33 v GWS Giants $3.50 – Adelaide Oval

Sunday Twilight, Line -21.5, Total 167.5

Adelaide are 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 3-7 Over in 2018

GWS are 4-5-1 SU, 1-9 ATS, 3-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 5-1 SU & ATS against GWS since 2014

    • 4-0 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • GWS are 1-5-1 SU, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 matches outside of NSW/ACT

  • Adelaide are 4-2 SU & ATS the week after losing by 40+ points since 2015

  • GWS are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS at Adelaide Oval

 

Comments: It was crunch time for the Giants last week, and they barely put up a fight against Essendon, slipping farther and farther down the ladder. Last week wasn’t exactly great for Adelaide either, as they got smacked in the mouth by a rampant Melbourne side in the Alice. The difference between the two is that last week seems to be an outlier for the Crows, whereas softness and mediocrity has been the story of the Giants’ season so far. Adelaide should bounce back from last week’s deplorable efforts, and they could deliver the knockout blow to GWS’ top 4 ambitions.

Recommended Bet: 1u Adelaide -21.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

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