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AFL: Round 12 Preview and Tips
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by @betdetective

 

A very solid week for the tips last week with +3.51 units profit from 8 bets. We almost made it a great week but our 2/1 bet on Carlton -46.5 lost after a couple of junk time goals from Brisbane.

2016 record so far: 23 bets for +6.01 units

 

 

Essendon vs Hawthorn

I planned to put up Essendon +68.5 in this match but the line – and value – has well and truly gone with the news that Sam Mitchell is out, and punters realising that the initial line was too big. I’ll be hoping Hawthorn win by 69+ now.

 

 

Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs

Port have won their last two to get somewhat back on track for the year and they now sit at 6/5. They only beat Melbourne and Collingwood though so their return to top form very much has a question mark next to it.

The Dogs are 8/3 and continue to impress but this is a big test on the road as they’ve been lucky enough to play eight of their first 11 matches at Etihad.

The line has moved from Bulldogs -2.5 to +6.5 and this makes them value in what should be a close encounter.

1 unit Western Bulldogs +6.5 at $1.97 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18 WON

 

 

Brisbane vs Fremantle

Did Freo prove that they are not tanking last week against the Bombers? I’m not convinced but am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt against the Lions.

There is a general perception that the Lions are a far better team at the Gabba than away from their home ground and while they are a better team the difference is not as great as most might think. They’ve won 7 and lost 20 at the Gabba since 2014 with an average losing margin of 41 points and won 5 and lost 23 on the road with a losing average of 16 points.

If Freo turn up to play they should win and it’s very possible they win well. The average losing margin of the Lions at the Gabba of 41 points makes our second bet below a fair chance too.

1 unit Fremantle -2.5 at $1.93 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 WON

0.5 units Fremantle by 40 points or more (tri bet) at $6.50 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 WON

 

 

Geelong vs North Melbourne

Geelong have won 16 of their last 19 games at Simonds Stadium and I’ve backed them against North who i keep expecting to slip up. I’m having to come round to the idea of them being real flag contenders, however, and I expect this to be a really close one. So close that the sensible bet could well be the one i’m tipping below.

1 unit either team to win by 15 point for less (tri bet) at $2.60 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15 LOST

 

 

West Coast vs Adelaide

West Coast are 6/0 at Domain in 2016 with an average winning margin of 68 points. They’ve beaten Brisbane, Freo, Richmond, Collingwood, St Kilda and Gold Coast and all of those teams barring the Saints have been seriously below par this term.

The Crows are a similar proposition in that they are a better team at home but they’ve had creditable losses away from home with less than 3 goals defeats to the Hawks, North and Bulldogs.

I think the Crows can push the Eagles really close in this one.

1 unit Adelaide +17.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18 WON

 

 

St Kilda vs Carlton

St Kilda have been backed to beat the Blues at their shared home of Etihad Stadium but I see no reason why they should halt the Carlton train which has been gathering pace again since losing to North in round 9. 

1 unit Carlton -3.5 at $1.93 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

GSW vs Sydney

The Giants have lost their last two and have a tough task ahead of them this week as they take on local rivals the Swans at Spotless Stadium.  They’ve only beaten the Swans once in nine attempts, in round one of 2014 as 44 point underdogs but this is unquestionably their best chance to register a second win. 

Again we will look to the tri bet market for a bit of value in a match that should be a close one.

1 unit either team to win by 15 point for less (tri bet) at $2.62 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 

 

 

I’m leaving Melbourne vs Collingwood alone at the moment but might back the Dees come game time and also leaving the Tigers and Gold Coast. 

EDIT:

We’re adding Melbourne -2.5 at $1.93 with Pinny to our bets

 

good luck!

 

 

 

 

 

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