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AFL: Round 12 Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

AFL Round 12 Preview

 

 

Port Adelaide $1.75 v Richmond $2.2 – Adelaide Oval

Friday Night, Line -4.5, Total 145.5, Rain Expected

Port Adelaide are 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 3-7 Over in 2018

Richmond are 9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Port Adelaide are 3-4 SU & ATS against Richmond since 2013

    • 2-2 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • “Under” is 10-3 in Richmond’s last 13 matches on Friday Night

  • Richmond are 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS in their last 8 interstate matches

  • Port Adelaide are 2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Adelaide Oval against interstate sides as 1-20 point favourites

  • “Under” is 19-3 in Port Adelaide night matches at Adelaide Oval since 2011

  • Port Adelaide are 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS as true-home underdogs since 2014

  • Richmond are 7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS as underdogs since 2017

  • Ollie Wines has racked up 27+ disposals in each of his last 13 night matches

 

 

Comments:

These odds are as of Thursday Night, but rewind the clock just 24 hours, and the odds were reversed. Since then, the only change that has been in this game is the loss of Dustin Martin for Richmond. I already thought Richmond was value prior to the Martin news at $1.78 (implied probability of winning at 56%), but now I think they’re even more value at $2.20 (45% chance). I know how good Dustin Martin is, but I don’t think he (or any one player in the AFL for that matter) warrants a market change of this drastic measure. Richmond are the reigning premiers, and current flag favourites for a reason and they have to be considered value whenever they are underdogs, no matter who against, or no matter who’s missing.

Ollie Wines has racked up 27 or more disposals in his last 13 night matches, so I’ll bank on him to get 26 or more. Wines is a bull and he will flourish in these slippery conditions.

Side note: “Under” is the stat that sticks out the most, but with there being some questions whether or not there will be rain, I’m avoiding the low number.

Official Bets:

  • 2 u Richmond win @ 2.30 (Ladbrokes)

  • 1u Ollie Wines o25.5 disposals @ $2 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

Geelong $1.47 v North Melbourne $ 2.80 – GMHBA Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -15.5, Total 162.5

Geelong are 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 2-9 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, 3-8 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Chris Scott’s Geelong are 6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS against Brad Scott’s North Melbourne

    • Over is 8-3

    • 5 of Geelong’s 6 wins have been by under 39.5 points

    • 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS at Kardinia Park

  • Geelong are 18-0 SU, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 matches at GMHBA against teams apart from Sydney

  • “Under” is 11-1 in Geelong’s last 12 matches as favourites in Victoria

  • “Under” is 9-0 in Geelong’s last 9 matches

  • Geelong are 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS in Victoria the week after playing interstate since 2017

    • Average win is 23.5

  • North Melbourne are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 matches

 

Comments: North Melbourne have been one of the most surprising teams of 2018, if not the most surprising, and even though I keep telling myself that I shouldn’t write them off, I believe this trip down the Cattery may be too much of an ask for this young and exciting football team.

North Melbourne have the stingiest defence in the league, and Geelong matches have gone “Under” in each of their last 9 games, so playing the under seems the obvious solution here.

Recommended Bets:

  • 2u “Under 162.5 Total Points Scored” @ $1.9 (Sportsbet)

  • 1u Under 162.5 / Geelong 1-39 @ $3.75 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

GWS Giants $1.09 v Gold Coast Suns $10 – Spotless Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line -45.5, Total 162.5, Showers Expected

GWS are 5-5-1 SU, 2-9 ATS, 4-7 Over in 2018

Gold Coast are 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 2-8 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS against Gold Coast since 2015

    • 2-0 SU & ATS at Spotless

      • Average winning margin – 96.5 points

    • GWS are 9-6-1 SU, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 matches at Spotless Stadium

    • Gold Coast have conceded 110+ points in 4 of their 5 matches against top 11 teams (at the time)

      • Average points conceded = 119.6 points per game

    • Jeremy Cameron has kicked 17 goals in his last 3 matches against Gold Coast

 

Comments: GWS surprised, and ruined everybody’s chance of picking 9 winners last week with their win over Adelaide, and they have the perfect rebound game against the soulless Suns. GWS should win big here, but they have failed to cover the line on so many occasions at home, so I’m reluctant to back them ATS here. Jeremy Cameron has kicked a bag just about every time he’d played them, and I’ll back him to do so again as the Suns are missing co-captain Steven May.

Recommended Bet: 1u Jeremy Cameron 4+ Goals & GWS win @ $3.75 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

 

St Kilda $4.10 v Sydney $1.27 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +23.5, Total 167.5

St Kilda are 1-9-1 SU, 4-7 ATS, 4-7 Over in 2018

Sydney are 8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • St Kilda are 0-4 SU & ATS against Sydney under Alan Richardson

    • Average losing margin = 64.8 points

    • Average score = 60 v 125

  • St Kilda are 4-8-1 SU, 5-8 ATS in their last 13 matches as underdogs at Etihad Stadium

  • St Kilda are 7-9 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium against interstate sides under Alan Richardson

  • Sydney are 13-1 SU, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 matches at Etihad Stadium

    • 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS as favourites

 

Comments:

Despite St Kilda showing a glimpse of decent footy in the last quarter last week against the Eagles, the Saints have shown very little in 2018, and it will be a long time before I back them in any capacity. Sydney have smashed St Kilda in each of their last four times against Alan Richardson’s Saints, and with Sydney’s exemplary record at Etihad Stadium, I expect them to do it again.

Recommended Bet: 3u Sydney -23.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Brisbane Lions $2.35 v Essendon $1.67 – Gabba

Sunday Afternoon, Line +9.5, Total 188.5 – Chance of Rain

Brisbane are 1-10, SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 Over in 2018

Essendon are 4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, 2-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Brisbane are 2-2 SU & ATS against Essendon since 2015

    • 0-1 SU & ATS at the Gabba

  • Brisbane are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in their last 6 matches at the Gabba

  • Essendon are 2-9 SU with a 73.1% in 2nd halves in 2018

  • Brisbane are 5-5-1 SU with a 98.8% in 2nd haves in 2018

  • Essendon are 3-18 SU, 8-13 ATS in their last 21 matches interstate

 

Comments:

After seemingly reigniting their season, Essendon were brought back down to earth as they got belted by the Tigers last weekend. I expect them to be flat this week, especially in the second half. Brisbane are a whopping 0-11 SU in first quarters this year, but have showed great resilience no matter what the score is as they are 5-5-1 SU in 2nd halves this season. Conversely, mainly due to their poor 3rd quarters in 2018, Essendon are 2-9 SU and have a worse percentage than the Lions in second halves. Regardless of whether they are winning at half time or not, I expect Brisbane to be more than competitive in the 2nd half.

Recommended Bet: 1u Brisbane win 2nd half @ $2.25 (William Hill)

 

 

 

Fremantle $3.50 v Adelaide $1.38 – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +22.5, Total 154.5 – Heavy Rain

Fremantle are 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, 3-8 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS against Adelaide since 2015

    • Average losing margin = 68.3

  • Adelaide are 14-10-1 SU, 14-11 ATS in interstate matches under Don Pyke

    • 12-2-1 SU, 10-5 ATS as favourites

    • 2-1 SU & ATS in Perth

  • Fremantle are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS in Perth in 2017

    • Under is 5-1

  • “Under” is 5-1 in day matches in Perth in 2018

  • “Under” is 3-1 in Adelaide matches interstate in 2018

 

Comments:

Although Fremantle have a pretty good record at home this season, when I see the quality of their starting 22, I just can’t find it within myself to back them in any capacity. On the flip side, Adelaide are pretty hard to back considering that they have 7 players who finished in their top 10 in last season’s bnf out of this matchup.

Considering there is “100%” chance of rain in the early afternoon in Perth, and 15-35 mm of rain expected, I am very surprised to see the “Total” set so high. I’ll be looking to take advantage of that, that’s for sure!

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 154.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Melbourne $1.60 v Collingwood $2.50 – MCG

Monday Afternoon, Line -10.5, Total 178.5, Cloudy

Melbourne are 8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS against Collingwood since 2015

  • Melbourne are 2-3 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2018

  • Melbourne are 6-0 SU & ATS in their last 6 matches

  • Favourites are 7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS in the last 7 Queens Birthday matches

  • Collingwood are 6-12-1 SU, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 matches as underdogs

    • 3-9-1 SU, 9-4 ATS at MCG

 

Comments:

Melbourne are undoubtedly the most inform team in the competition at the moment and are therefore very hard to go against, but if there is one ground that they have struggled this year (and last year for that matter), ironically, it’s the MCG. Favourites have won the last 7 Queen’s Birthday matches, tipping me towards a Melbourne win, but I don’t expect them to blow out a Collingwood outfit that seem to play their best footy as underdogs.

Recommended Bet: 1u Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.30 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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