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AFL: Round 13 Preview and Tips
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by @betdetective

 

A cracking week on the punt for our AFL followers in round 12 with +4.93 units profit from seven bets which takes our season total up to +10.94 units from 30 bets. 

 

Round 13 is the first of the bye weeks and while there are some mouth watering contests to look forward to there don’t look to be many betting opportunities for us.

 

North Melbourne take on Hawthorn at Etihad on Friday night and Sam Mitchell’s return for the Hawks and injuries to North’s Waite, Cunnington and Swallow has seen the opening line of 14.5 move out to 23.5 in Hawthorn’s favour.

 

The new line looks about right and I won’t be getting involved as it stands. Waite missing is a big blow for North as he would have provided a type of physical presence up top for North that neither Petrie nor Ben Brown are capable of. Hawthorn will try to bully North and this task is made so much easier without three of North’s toughest players on the oval. 

 

Next up is Brisbane vs West Coast  and this is a no bet affair too unless the rain arrives in Brisbane in which case we’ll try to hop on the unders at anywhere above 190 total points. 

 

 

Fremantle vs Port is of a similar vein. It looks too close to call on the current line of Freo +7.5, but we can have a dabble in the total points market.

 

 

Twilight games at Domain stadium since 2014 have gone 13/6 to the unders with an average line of 171 and average total of 162.

 

Freo have also seemingly turned a bit of a corner – beating Essendon and Brisbane though so caution is advised – and their defensive pressure looked back to something like their best which bodes well for a low scoring game. 

1 unit under 182.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05    EDIT (it’s been correctly pointed out that this game is a day match, not a twilight one so it will go in the records as a tip but if you’re reading this article for the first time…save your money)

 

 

The Bulldogs take on the Cats on Saturday night in the match of the round and this looks like one to watch rather than bet on unless the line moves a couple of points.

If the Dogs get out to +10.5 we should get on.

The Doggies have a sensational record at Etihad since the start of 2015 winning 15 of their 17 games for +6.98 to $1 and 12/5 ATS for +$4.80 to $1. 

 

Sydney play Melbourne at the SCG on Sunday and the Swans’ record at the ground – won 17 of last 20 – is one reason why we should back them to cover the 24.5 line. Melbourne were impressive against the Pies on Lizzie’s birthday when winning by 46 points but the Pies were pure dog turd and despite this actually had 1 more inside 50 than the Dees who have been overrated on the basis of the win. 

1 unit Sydney -24.5 at $1.98 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

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