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AFL: Round 13 Trends and Tips
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Port Adelaide $1.14 v Western Bulldogs $7 – Adelaide Oval

Thursday Night, Line -36.5, Total 143.5 – 80% chance of rain

Port Adelaide are 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 3-8 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS, 3-8 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Port Adelaide are 3-2 SU & ATS against the Western Bulldogs since 2014

    • 2-1 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Port Adelaide are 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS at Adelaide Oval against interstate sides since 2017

  • “Under” is 12-1 in Port Adelaide’s last 13 matches at Adelaide Oval against interstate teams

  • “Under” is 28-11 in Port Adelaide night matches at Adelaide Oval since 2015

  • Port Adelaide are 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS the week after a win in 2018

  • Western Bulldogs are 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 interstate matches

  • Western Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval, all time

    • Under is 4-1

  • “Under” is 7-1 in the last 8 Western Bulldogs matches played interstate

 

Most Likely Play: Under Total Points Scored

 

 

 

 

 

Sydney $1.56 v West Coast $2.50 – SCG

Friday Night, Line -10.5, Total 162.5

Sydney are 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 Over in 2018

West Coast are 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Sydney are 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday Night matches at home

  • Sydney are 7-2 SU & ATS against the Eagles since 2010

    • 2-0 SU & ATS at the SCG

  • Favourites are 6-0 SU & ATS in the last 6 matches between these two teams

  • West Coast are 6-4 SU & ATS in their last 10 interstate matches

    • 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in 2018

  • West Coast are 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 matches interstate as underdogs

  • 13 of the 18 Friday Night matches at the SCG since 2011 have been decided by 24 points or less

Most Likely Play: Either team by under 24.5 points

 

 

 

 

 

Carlton $2.47 v Fremantle $1.63 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line +10.5, Total 160.5

Carlton are 1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 Over in 2018

Fremantle are 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS, 3-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Carlton are 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS against Fremantle since 2013

    • 0-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

    • Under is 4-1

  • Carlton are 3-4 SU & ATS against interstate sides at Etihad Stadium under Brendon Bolton

    • Under is 5-2

  • Fremantle are 3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS in interstate matches since 2017

  • Fremantle are 12-3 SU, 7-8 ATS as favourites playing interstate since 2014

    • Have only been favourites twice since 2016

  • Fremantle are 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS in their last 12 matches at Etihad Stadium

Most Likely Bet: Under total points scored

 

 

 

 

Gold Coast Suns $2.30 v St Kilda $1.68 – Metricon Stadium

Saturday Twilight, Line +7.5, Total 168.5

Gold Coast are 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS, 3-8 Over in 2018

St Kilda are 1-10-1 SU, 4-8 ATS, 5-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Under Alan Richardson, St Kilda are 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS against Gold Coast

    • 1-1 SU & ATS at Metricon Stadium

  • Gold Coast are 2-6 SU & ATS in their last 8 matches at home against interstate sides

    • 1-4 SU & ATS as underdogs

  • St Kilda are 4-17 SU, 8-13 ATS in interstate matches under Alan Richardson

    • 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS as favourites

Most Likely Bet: No Bet

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn $1.68 v Adelaide $2.30 – MCG

Saturday Night, Line -8.5, Total 160.5 – High chance of rain

Hawthorn are 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS against Adelaide since 2013

    • 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS at the MCG

  • Hawthorn are 3-4 SU & ATS as favourites in 2018

  • Hawthorn are 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 matches at the MCG

  • Adelaide are 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS as underdogs in matches played interstate under Don Pyke

    • Only one game was decided by more than 39 points

Most Likely Bet: Hawthorn 1-39

 

 

 

 

Geelong $2.60 v Richmond $1.55 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line +12.5, Total 155.5

Geelong are 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 2-10 Over in 2018

Richmond are 9-3, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 2-3 SU, 3-3 ATS against Geelong since 2014

    • Under is 6-0

    • 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS at the MCG

  • Richmond are 15-0 SU, 13-2 ATS in their last 15 matches at the MCG

    • Concede 59.7 points per game

  • Geelong are 14-10 SU, 8-16 ATS in their last 24 matches at the MCG

  • Under is 22-8 in Geelong matches at the MCG since 2014

 

Most Likely Play: Richmond Line

 

 

 

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