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AFL: Round 14 Trends and Tips
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West Coast Eagles v Essendon – Optus Stadium

Thursday Night, Line -28.5, Total 157.5

West Coast are 10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 Over in 2018

Essendon are 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 2-10 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • West Coast are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS at Optus Stadium in 2018

    • 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS in their last 6

      • Average Winning Margin = 34

    • West Coast average 106 team points at Optus Stadium in 2018

  • Essendon are 1-16 SU, 5-12 ATS in interstate matches as underdogs since 2015

    • Opposition average team points = 109

      • Excluding 2016 (when players were suspended) = 99

    • West Coast are 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS in their last 9 matches in Perth as favourites

    • Essendon are 0-7 SU & ATS in their last 7 matches in Perth

      • 0-2 SU & ATS against West Coast

 

Comments:

West Coast had their first loss in 10 weeks last week, but they didn’t lose any supporters as they put up a good fight against the Swans at the SCG. I expect them to bounce back well against a side that don’t usually travel too well, even if they are without Kennedy and Darling.

Recommended Bet: 1u West Coast -28.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

Unofficial Recommended Promo Bet (if eligible): Gaff 30+ Disposals & WCE win @ $3 (Ladbrokes) is definitely value. Gaff has racked up 33 and 35 disposals in his last two home games against the Bombers.

 

 

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v Melbourne – Adelaide Oval

Friday Night, Line -10.5, Total 169.5, Cloudy

Port Adelaide are 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 3-9 Over in 2018

Melbourne are 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

  • Port Adelaide are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against Melbourne

o   Under is 3-1

o   0-1 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Under is 26-5 in Port Adelaide night matches at Adelaide Oval

  • Melbourne are 9-7 SU, 11-5 ATS in all interstate matches since 2016

  • Ollie Wines has racked up 27+ disposals in each of his last 15 night matches

  • Melbourne are 3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 matches at Adelaide Oval

o   Under is 5-0

  • Home favourites who didn’t have the bye last week vs teams that did have a bye last week are 28-0 SU, 15-13 ATS since 2012 (PORT)

 

Comments:

What a huge Friday Night match we have here, as Melbourne will be trying to prove to the world that they can play on the big stage after they failed to perform on Queen’s Birthday. Melbourne have been very good on the road in recent times, especially at the Adelaide Oval, but Port Adelaide are in red hot form. With the weather being a little more predictable than the last 2 prime time Port Adelaide matches, the total points market seems a little high considering the past.

Ollie Wines is a bull, and the bookies haven’t adjusted their markets accordingly. Take advantage of it.

Recommended Bets:

  • 2u Under 169.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

  • 2u Ollie Wines o27.5 disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn $1.07 v Gold Coast $12 – Launceston

Saturday Afternoon, Line -52.5, Total 168.5

Hawthorn are 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 4-8 Over in 2018

Adelaide are 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS, 4-9 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Hawthorn are 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS against Gold Coast since 2014

    • 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS in Launceston

  • Hawthorn are 3-0-1 SU, 4-0 ATS in his last 4 matches in Launceston

  • Gold Coast are 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 interstate matches

  • Tom Mitchell has had 35+ disposals in 5 of his last 6 matches in Launceston

  • Tom Mitchell has had 33+ disposals in 4 of his last 5 matches against Gold Coast

 

 

Comments:

I expect nothing less than an absolute pantsing in this game in favour of Hawthorn, but I think the bookies have it right in this one with both the total and the line. There is always a risk of Mitchell getting tagged, but he has form down in Tassie and against the Suns, so I’ll back him to have a big day again.

Recommended Bet: 1u Tom Mitchell 35+ disposals $2.20 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Brisbane Lions $3.70 v GWS Giants $1.30 – Gabba

Saturday Twilight, Line -22.5, Total 184.5

Brisbane are 1-11 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 Over in 2018

GWS are 6-5-1 SU, 3-9 ATS, 5-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • GWS are 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS against the Lions since 2014

    • Average winning margin 49.6

    • 3-0 SU & ATS at the Gabba

  • GWS are 12-7-2 SU, 8-13 ATS as road favourites since 2016

    • Under is 14-7

  • The away side are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 matches between these two sides

  • GWS’ first half % is 120.6

  • Brisbane’s first half % is 61.6

 

Comments: I really want to back the Giants line here due to the fact that they are starting to hit their straps, but their record away from home is pretty average. Brisbane have played a lot better in 2ndhalves than 1sthalves this season, so I think I’ll play the half time line.

Recommended Bet: 1.5u GWS -11.5 1sthalf @ $1.95 (Bet365)

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs $5 v North Melbourne $1.22 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +32.5, Total 171.5

Western Bulldogs are 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS, 4-8 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS, 3-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

  • Western Bulldogs are 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS against North Melbourne since 2015

    • All matches have been decided by 23 or under

  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two sides

  • Ben Cunnington has collected over 25 disposals in 9 of his last 11 matches at Etihad Stadium

 

Comments: North Melbourne should run away with this game pretty easily against a pretty beaten up Western Bulldogs side, but the line is probably about right, so I’m looking for value elsewhere. These two teams have had relatively low scoring matches in the last few years, and these teams playing in low scoring matches for the majority of the year, I’m backing it to continue. Ben Cunnington to rack up 25+ disposals at Etihad Stadium has become a consistent (winning) bet of ours this season, so let’s back it to continue!

Recommended Bets:

  • 2u Under 171.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.91 (Bet365)

  • 2u Ben Cunnington 25+ Disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

Collingwood $1.08 v Carlton $10 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line -47.5, Total 162.5, Cloudy

Collingwood are 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 Over in 2018

Carlton are 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS against Carlton since 2013

    • Only two of the matches have been decided by over 40+

  • Carlton are 10-13-1 SU, 20-4 ATS in their last 24 day/twilight matches at the MCG since 2014

  • Collingwood are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS as favourites in 2018

  • Scott Pendlebury has recorded over 100 dream team points in each of his last 7 matches against Carlton.

 

Comments: Collingwood vs Carlton has delivered some close games over the years – no matter where these two teams are on the ladder – but with Carlton practically not showing up against Fremantle last week, it’s hard to confidently back them to make a game of this one. No Bet.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.80 (Sportsbet)

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