We had a winner last night when West Coast beat Essendon by 78 points. It’s always nice to get a winner when you’ve taken the worst line/odds. We backed at -72.5 and incredibly the line hit the high 40’s yesterday. I rarely regret playing golf but I can honestly say i’d have have gone in very deep (for me) at that line had i not been hacking and swearing my way around a field for four fours when it was all happening.
A winner is a winner though so I can’t be too downcast about it. What is certain though is that Pinnacle are in disarray with their AFL odds and lines. They are all over the shop so we must stay on the ball and take advantage when we can.
I’m not recommending a bet in Friday night’s game between Port Adelaide and Richmond but keep an eye on my Twitter feed for any late bets should Pinnacle start shifting their lines like yesterday.
Saturday sees St Kilda travel North to the Gold Coast looking to follow up their win over Geelong last week.
The Saints have really struggled on the road for as long as I can remember and they have lost 9 of their last 10 interstate and covered the spread in just three of those. The difference between facing the Gold Coast and most of those matches is clear, however, as the Suns have lost 10 on the spin while St Kilda were underdogs by an average of 32 points in their last 10 on the road.
The Suns have improved and when Gary Ablett is playing well they are always a chance but on balance I have to make the Saints favourites in this so they are a bet at even money.
The Saturday twilight game sees the Western Bulldogs go to the SCG to take on the Swans and all you need to know about this is that the Swans have won 19 of their last 21 at the SCG, covered in 11 of the 21 and notably in their last six at the venue.
I really like the Dogs as a team but at the current line i rate the Swans as a very good bet. A rare two unit bet.
Adelaide go to the MCG to play Melbourne on Sunday and if Adelaide are to be considered flag pretenders then they must win this and win it well. I’ve backed them at $14 to win the flag so am hoping they do just that.
The Crows have won their last five including against North last week and West Coast in Perth the week before. A repeat of that level of form sees them easily past the Demons who have beaten only Gold Coast, Brisbane and Collingwood since round 6.